Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Roivant Sciences (ROIV)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.23+6.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ROIV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain strong cash position and execute buyback | The company has $4.3 billion in cash and announced a $1 billion share buyback. | Intact | Cash falls below $4B or buyback program halted | Cash and cash equivalents: $1.248B FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Cash >= $4B and buyback program ongoing next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Date unavailable1,248,456,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a development-stage biotech thesis, with value tied to advancing drug programs rather than reported product sales. The thesis is intact: recent financial performance has been strong, and management has continued to meet clinical milestones, but the business remains loss-making and risk has recently risen to elevated.
The evidence flags the expectations gap as unjustified, with no fragility gates triggered, but it does not provide a peer valuation comparison or specific market assumptions. The pricing picture is therefore incomplete; strong recent performance and clinical progress appear reflected in the thesis, while the supplied evidence does not show how much future success is already assumed.
Near term, results have been strong, with earnings beats in April and May and an in-line report in August. Management reports progress on brepocitinib, IMVT-1402, and mosliciguat, but supplied financials show no product-specific sales, so clinical progress is not yet evidence of commercial performance. Guidance cuts and weakening employment data are cited risks, while recent risk classification has moved from moderate to elevated.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued progress in trials and launches, and eventually on whether that progress can translate into product sales. Near-term sentiment could weaken if guidance is cut or recession fears rise; continued strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum, though it does not establish ROIV’s own execution.
Over the next one to three years, ROIV’s setup rests on promising clinical progress and strong recent performance, balanced against ongoing losses, elevated risk, and limited evidence of product sales. The thesis remains intact, but commercial proof and continued execution are key. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It beat earnings with EPS of $0.28 last quarter, well above estimates. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below -0.4 next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $-0.26 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= -0.4 next quarter. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 2026-0.26 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes and stops declining sharply | A primary condition in Roivant Sciences's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than 20% next fiscal year. | Intact | Revenue decline exceeds 20% next fiscal year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.90 → $-1.30 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.90 | $645,873,149 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.90 | $645,873,149 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.98 | $608,696,388 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.56 | $465,839,190 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.56 | $465,839,190 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.56 | $465,839,190 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.98 | $608,696,388 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.98 | $608,696,388 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.98 | $608,696,388 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.56 | $579,326,750 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.04 | $579,326,749 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.56 | $579,326,750 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.04 | $579,326,749 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.56 | $579,326,750 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.56 | $586,211,680 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.05 | $586,243,715 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.27 | $404,211,753 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.26 | $404,211,753 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.26 | $404,211,753 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.26 | $401,711,753 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.26 | $401,711,753 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.27 | $406,947,048 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.27 | $406,947,048 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.27 | $406,947,048 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.27 | $406,947,048 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.28 | $388,394,046 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.28 | $388,394,046 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.28 | $388,394,046 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.28 | $394,303,137 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.28 | $394,303,137 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.28 | $394,303,137 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.28 | $394,303,137 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.28 | $394,303,137 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.28 | $394,303,137 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.28 | $394,303,137 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.28 | $394,303,137 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.33 | $406,700,955 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.32 | $409,791,864 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.32 | $409,831,180 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.32 | $409,831,180 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.32 | $409,831,180 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.32 | $409,831,180 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.32 | $409,831,180 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.34 | $409,812,998 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.34 | $409,812,998 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.34 | $409,812,998 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.34 | $409,812,998 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.30 | $407,586,915 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.30 | $407,586,915 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.30 | $407,586,915 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.30 | $407,586,915 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.30 | $407,586,915 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.31 | $407,381,160 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.31 | $408,222,826 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.31 | $408,222,826 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.31 | $408,222,826 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.31 | $408,222,826 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.31 | $408,222,826 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.31 | $408,222,826 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.31 | $408,222,826 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.31 | $408,222,826 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.30 | $426,566,042 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.30 | $426,566,042 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.30 | $426,566,042 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.30 | $426,566,042 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.30 | $426,566,042 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.30 | $426,566,042 | 4 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.