RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC (RYAAY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.36+1.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RYAAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: The earnings report will show how well Ryanair is managing costs and demand. It can impact investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Also watch forEPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Inflation affects consumer spending and travel costs, which are key for Ryanair.
Watch forCPI rises less than 0.2%. This means inflation is under control.
Also watch forCPI rises more than 0.5%. This shows inflation pressures are increasing.
Why it matters: PPI trends can signal future consumer price changes, affecting Ryanair's costs.
Watch forPPI shows a decrease or stable reading, indicating cost pressures are easing.
Also watch forPPI shows an increase above 0.4%, indicating rising costs for airlines.
Why it matters: CPI changes can show inflation trends. These trends impact consumer spending on travel.
Watch forCPI shows inflation below 2%. This indicates stable prices that may boost travel spending.
Also watch forCPI is over 4%. This shows high inflation. It may cut back on travel spending.
Why it matters: This report will show job growth and wage changes, impacting travel demand.
Watch forNon-farm payrolls increase by more than 300,000 jobs, suggesting strong economic growth.
Also watch forNon-farm payrolls rise by less than 100,000 jobs. This shows the economy is slowing.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects travel demand. Strong GDP can boost Ryanair's revenue outlook.
Supportive ifGDP growth reported above 2% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifGDP growth reported below 1% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects travel demand. A drop could hurt Ryanair's revenue.
Worry ifAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth above 3% month over month.
Less concerning ifAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth below 1% month over month.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can impact interest rates and consumer spending. This affects travel demand.
Watch forThe FOMC raises interest rates. This leads to higher borrowing costs and lower travel demand.
Also watch forThe FOMC keeps interest rates steady or lowers them. This supports consumer spending and travel demand.
Why it matters: CPI affects inflation outlook. High inflation can hurt consumer spending on travel.
Worry ifCPI reported above 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifCPI reported below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing down. Changes here could impact Ryanair's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 5%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth continues to slow below 5%.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a good change in the sector's maturity.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic weakness. This could hurt travel demand.
Worry ifWeekly claims rise above 300,000.
Less concerning ifWeekly claims fall below 250,000.
Why it matters: Changes in the PPI can affect costs and pricing strategies for airlines like Ryanair.
Watch forPPI shows a significant increase above 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forPPI shows a decrease or increase below 0.1% month over month.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $342 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,740 loss on $10,000 · 27.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.