RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC (RYAAY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.05+8.15%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RYAAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts travel demand. Strong spending can boost Ryanair's revenue outlook.
Supportive ifRetail sales report shows an increase greater than 1% month over month.
Worry ifRetail sales report shows a decrease greater than -1% month over month.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects travel demand. Strong growth could boost Ryanair's revenue outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 GDP growth rate is now above 2%. This is higher than earlier estimates.
Worry ifQ3 GDP growth rate revised downward below 1%.
Why it matters: Changes in the CPI can influence consumer behavior and airline pricing strategies. This affects Ryanair's revenue.
Watch forCPI shows inflation is below 2%. This means prices are stable.
Also watch forCPI shows inflation is above 4%. This means costs are rising.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes affect travel costs and consumer spending. This can impact Ryanair's business.
Watch forFOMC raises rates by more than 25 basis points.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,000 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can show economic problems. This can lower travel demand for Ryanair.
Worry ifWeekly unemployment claims are over 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Less concerning ifWeekly unemployment claims are under 250,000 for two weeks in a row.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects travel demand. A drop could hurt Ryanair's revenue.
Worry ifAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth above 3% month over month.
Less concerning ifAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth below 1% month over month.
Why it matters: CPI changes affect how much money consumers have. This impacts Ryanair's ticket sales.
Watch forCPI increases above 3% year over year.
Also watch forCPI decreases below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can signal consumer spending trends, which affect airline demand. This is crucial for Ryanair.
Watch forWeekly claims drop below 200,000, indicating a strong job market.
Also watch forWeekly claims go over 300,000. This shows the job market is getting weaker.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing down. Changes here could impact Ryanair's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 5%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth continues to slow below 5%.