Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC (RYAAY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.05+8.15%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.52 → 3.05 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RYAAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS meets or exceeds analyst consensus | Analysts expect earnings per share around $4.62 in fiscal 2027 and $5.30 in fiscal 2028. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.62 in FY27 or $5.30 in FY28 | Diluted EPS: EUR 1.02 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.62 in FY27 and >= $5.30 in FY28. Target and observation currencies differ. Jul 20, 20261.02 EUR/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical business exposure, where results can be sensitive to economic conditions and sector trends. The current thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to judge the business trajectory.
The evidence does not provide a valuation measure or a clear account of market expectations, so it is not possible to characterize the valuation or expectations gap. Priced-in fragility is marked low, but that does not establish whether the shares are cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and recent weakness among industry peers raise execution concerns, although the stated miss risk is low. The broader sector backdrop is a headwind, and weakening employment could add pressure to cyclical businesses. The evidence is too limited to establish a multi-year fundamental trend.
Near-term sentiment may depend on whether major airline peers continue to report strong results or begin missing and lowering guidance. A further weakening in the jobs trend could increase recession concerns. For the multi-year view, the key gap is clearer evidence on RYAAY’s own financial performance and execution.
The 1-to-3-year read is uncertain: the available evidence flags near-term risks but does not support a firm conclusion about the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC's published investment case. The stated target is Operational disruptions do not increase materially beyond current levels. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operational issues worsen significantly, reducing bookings and revenue |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Passenger numbers continue to grow or hold near record levels | Ryanair keeps growing passenger numbers, hitting new monthly records. | Intact | Passenger numbers fall below recent monthly record levels next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
No further rulings that materially reduce add-on fees or increase costs | A primary condition in RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC's published investment case. The stated target is No new rulings that significantly cut add-on fees or mandate free hand luggage. | Under Pressure | Additional rulings force removal of key fees or increase operational costs materially | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.90 → $3.05 · observed estimates
$17.22B → $17.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.90 | $17,222,456,170 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.90 | $17,216,067,290 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.90 | $17,216,067,290 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.90 | $17,216,067,290 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.90 | $17,216,067,290 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.89 | $17,219,984,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.86 | $17,160,552,651 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.89 | $17,219,984,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.89 | $17,219,984,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.89 | $17,219,984,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.89 | $17,219,984,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.89 | $17,219,984,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.89 | $17,219,984,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.89 | $17,219,984,400 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.86 | $17,163,945,926 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.82 | $17,192,501,459 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.82 | $17,202,402,416 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.82 | $17,202,402,416 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.82 | $17,202,402,416 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.82 | $17,202,402,416 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.82 | $17,202,402,416 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.81 | $17,240,543,409 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.81 | $17,240,543,409 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.81 | $17,240,543,409 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.86 | $17,245,683,855 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.86 | $17,245,683,855 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.86 | $17,245,683,855 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.86 | $17,245,683,855 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.82 | $17,241,526,175 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.80 | $17,234,818,342 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.75 | $17,281,734,446 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.75 | $17,281,734,446 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.75 | $17,281,734,446 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.75 | $17,281,734,446 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.75 | $17,281,734,446 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.75 | $17,281,734,446 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.75 | $17,281,734,446 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.75 | $17,284,483,685 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.71 | $17,304,601,792 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.71 | $17,303,381,057 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.71 | $17,303,381,057 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.71 | $17,303,381,057 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.71 | $17,303,381,057 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.71 | $17,303,381,057 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.71 | $17,303,381,057 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.71 | $17,303,381,057 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.67 | $17,315,513,189 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.66 | $17,252,137,182 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.59 | $17,291,381,768 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.60 | $17,332,720,290 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.59 | $17,358,371,495 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.60 | $17,370,341,725 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.55 | $17,364,230,426 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.55 | $17,366,659,478 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.56 | $17,415,034,574 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.57 | $17,450,721,120 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.51 | $17,461,631,147 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.51 | $17,479,313,561 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.52 | $17,532,360,801 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.52 | $17,520,588,613 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.52 | $17,534,394,442 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.52 | $17,557,514,253 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.52 | $17,557,514,253 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.43 | $17,561,146,161 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.43 | $17,561,146,161 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.38 | $17,533,608,299 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.38 | $17,533,608,299 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.32 | $17,533,608,299 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.33 | $17,560,456,729 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.33 | $17,589,844,876 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.34 | $17,632,888,121 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.25 | $17,636,241,197 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.26 | $17,698,755,195 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.26 | $17,698,755,195 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.26 | $17,698,755,195 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.26 | $17,698,755,195 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.26 | $17,698,755,195 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.20 | $17,721,709,591 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.20 | $17,721,709,591 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.20 | $17,721,709,591 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.20 | $17,721,709,591 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.20 | $17,721,709,591 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.20 | $17,721,709,591 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.20 | $17,721,709,591 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.20 | $17,721,709,591 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.18 | $17,721,404,516 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.13 | $17,721,404,516 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.22 | $17,657,636,187 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.22 | $17,657,636,187 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.18 | $17,641,376,837 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.10 | $17,712,532,956 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.05 | $17,684,066,017 | 4 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.