Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
$0.40 → $0.40 · observed estimates
SailPoint Inc (SAIL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.72+3.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SAIL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EPS of $0.30 to $0.34 for FY 2027 | The company expects adjusted EPS between $0.30 and $0.34 for the year. | Intact | Adjusted EPS falls below $0.25 in FY 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
$0.40 → $0.40 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with a path toward profitability, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis remains intact but watchful, with medium confidence and elevated risk.
SAIL is expensive versus peers, though its valuation score recently fell from 39.0 to 27.2. The expectations gap is 0.39, and the evidence labels the current pricing unjustified, but confidence in that assessment is low.
Near term, results have been weak relative to the industry cohort, although the latest reported earnings were in line and revenue rose from $280 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $309 million in the third. Recurring revenue is growing, and diluted losses narrowed, but delivery on the full-year adjusted EPS goal remains mixed; a guidance cut is the key near-term risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue and ARR growth and progress toward management’s FY 2027 goals. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while easing rates or steadier results and guidance from large technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SAIL’s long-term thesis has signs of operating progress, but weak relative performance, ongoing losses, and elevated risk leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in SailPoint Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $308-$312 million revenue. |
| Intact |
| Q2 revenue falls below $300 million |
Revenue: $308.813M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $308-$312 million revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 10, 2026308,813,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to $1,265-$1,275 million for FY 2027 | A primary condition in SailPoint Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1,270 million total revenue. | Intact | Total revenue falls below $1,200 million in FY 2027 | Revenue: $308.813M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1,270 million total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 10, 2026308,813,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.51B → $1.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.40 | $1,512,304,088 | 14 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.