SailPoint Inc (SAIL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$18.39-6.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAIL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 44.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 24 industry peers
SAIL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-09-09
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the earnings release incorporated into this Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except…
Why it matters: This tests SailPoint’s recurring sales growth. Q3 guidance calls for 24% ARR growth.
Supportive ifAt the December 8, 2026 earnings release, total ARR is at least $1.288 billion, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifQ3 total ARR is below $1.288 billion, or management cuts its FY2027 ARR range below $1.375 billion.
Why it matters: The sector note flags this as a key change to watch. A drop could add pressure to SailPoint’s growth setting.
Worry ifThe next sector update reports IT revenue growth below its historical median.
Less concerning ifThe next sector update reports IT revenue growth at or above its historical median.
Why it matters: This tests whether SailPoint can pair growth with better adjusted margins. Recent signals also flag losses.
Supportive ifFY2027 adjusted operating margin is at least 18.7%, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifFY2027 adjusted operating margin is below 18.7%. Or management cuts the 18.7% low end.
Why it matters: SaaS ARR grew 36% in both reported quarters. Keeping that pace would support cloud growth.
Supportive ifAt the December 8 results, SaaS ARR growth is at least 34% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 SaaS ARR growth falls below 30% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$231 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $691 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,175 loss on $10,000 · 51.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue range would support management’s growth plan. A miss would weaken that case.
Supportive ifFY2027 revenue is at least $1.265 billion, the low end of the stated range.
Worry ifFY2027 revenue is below $1.265 billion, or management lowers the range before the year ends.
Why it matters: AI-driven solutions made up over 30% of new ARR in Q2. More growth would support the long-term target.
Supportive ifA later results release reports AI-driven ARR above $70 million and higher than the Q2 level.
Worry ifA later results release shows AI-driven ARR at or below $70 million. Or management drops the $800 million FY2029 target.