SailPoint Inc (SAIL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.82-2.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAIL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 69 industry peers
SAIL — director transition
Dated 2026-06-12
Director — Nabil Hamade: Mr. Hamade resigned from the board of directors, and Collin Gallagher was appointed as a successor.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals weakening demand in the sector.
Worry ifSailPoint's revenue growth reported below the sector median growth rate.
Less concerning ifSailPoint's revenue growth remains above the sector median growth rate.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow helps a company grow. It allows operations without outside money.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is over $38 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is under $38 million.
Why it matters: This growth rate is critical for maintaining momentum. Falling short could indicate deeper issues.
Worry ifARR growth reported at or above 24% year-over-year for Q2 2027.
Less concerning ifARR growth reported below 24% year-over-year for Q2 2027.
Why it matters: If growth drops below this rate, it may show less demand in identity security.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth reported at or above 17% YoY.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth falls below 17% YoY.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$284 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $701 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,561 loss on $10,000 · 55.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This revenue target is crucial for showing growth momentum. Meeting it signals strong demand.
Supportive ifQ2 2027 revenue reported at $310 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 2027 revenue reported below $308 million.
Why it matters: This growth in ARR shows the company's ability to expand its customer base and revenue.
Supportive ifTotal ARR reported at $1,220 million or higher.
Worry ifTotal ARR reported below $1,218 million.
Why it matters: This income level shows the company runs well and is financially healthy. It means profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted income from operations was $57 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted income from operations was less than $56.5 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows the company is making more money. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported at $0.32 or higher for FY 2027.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $0.30 for FY 2027.