Satellogic, Inc. (SATL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.64+0.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SATL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 99.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 144.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SATL — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CFO — Dustin Greer: The filing discloses the internal promotion of the Corporate Controller to Interim CFO, which is a succession event rather than a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: More contracts would support Satellogic's growth plan in the defense sector.
Supportive ifGetting more defense contracts over $30 million would show market success.
Worry ifNo new sovereign defense contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New contracts would validate the company's strategy and growth in the defense sector.
Supportive ifNew defense contracts worth over $10 million are announced.
Worry ifNo new defense contracts are announced, which may show market problems.
Why it matters: Expanding the board could bring new expertise and improve governance.
Supportive ifOfficial announcement of new board members being added.
Worry ifNo progress or delays in expanding the board.
Why it matters: A stable CFO is important for keeping finances in check and gaining investor trust.
Watch forA permanent CFO is named before the Separation Date. This helps keep operations smooth.
Also watch forNo permanent CFO is named by the Separation Date. This may show instability.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$425 on $10,000 · ±4.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,035 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,932 loss on $10,000 · 69.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Making a profit would show the company is moving toward making more money. This is a key goal for the team.
Supportive ifWatch for positive operating income in Q3.
Worry ifWatch for negative operating income in Q3.
Why it matters: A smooth change can help operations after the CFO left.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new CFO with a clear plan for the future.
Worry ifFurther delays or issues in appointing a new CFO.
Why it matters: The CFO change is important for financial stability. Delays can worry investors.
Worry ifManagement will name a new CFO before the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifNo news on the CFO change creates doubt about financial leadership.
Why it matters: New contracts would show strong demand for Satellogic's services in defense. This fits with the team's growth plan.
Supportive ifAt least one new sovereign defense contract signed in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new sovereign defense contracts signed in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This contract helps Satellogic grow in the defense sector.
Supportive ifCompletion of the contract transfer process for the $12 million agreement by early 2027.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise in the contract transfer process.
Why it matters: A smooth CFO change is important for financial stability and investor trust.
Watch forThe new CFO starts work without any problems.
Also watch forThis change may cause delays in financial reports. It could also lead to instability.
Why it matters: A smooth CFO transition is crucial for financial stability. Delays could raise concerns.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO with relevant experience within 60 days.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new CFO or further delays beyond 60 days.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals that Satellogic is gaining traction in its markets. A growth rate above 80% would confirm ongoing commercial momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 80% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 80% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The Merlin constellation is important for Satellogic. Its launch shows the company's skills in AI satellite tech.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch of the first Merlin satellite in Q4 2026.
Worry ifLaunch of the Merlin satellite is delayed beyond Q4 2026.