Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Satellogic, Inc. (SATL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.89-9.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SATL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain stable management team after recent executive departures | A supporting condition in Satellogic, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures in next 6 months. | Improving | Additional key executive departures occur within 6 months | 0 key departures vs 0 allowed News and filings show internal CFO promotion and external President hire, with no additional key executive departures in the last 6 months. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business with a speculative element, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is improving as revenue grows and recent results show progress toward profitability, but the current thesis state remains watch.
SATL is expensive versus peers, and the valuation model points to expectations driven by future opportunity, though its confidence is low. The priced-in signal is tagged as unjustified, but the evidence does not show a broad stack of valuation, business weakness, and turbulence driving fragility.
Near-term results remain uncertain after an August earnings miss, and recent financial performance is weak relative to the industry. In Q2, revenue grew sharply year over year, operating income turned slightly positive, and adjusted EBITDA also moved positive; management says growth and profitability priorities remain on track. Merlin development is reported as customer-funded, with its first launch targeted for Q4 2026 and full operations expected in H1 2027.
The multi-year thesis hinges on sustained revenue growth, continued progress toward positive operating results, and delivery of Merlin’s stated milestones. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SATL has visible execution progress but still faces weak recent performance, high risk, and an expensive valuation. The thesis depends on converting growth and operational progress into sustained results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduce losses and improve EPS towards break-even |
| A primary condition in Satellogic, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves from -$0.32 in 2026 to closer to -$0.09 in 2027. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains flat or worsens beyond -$0.32 in 2026 and -$0.09 in 2027 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS improves from -$0.32 in 2026 to closer to -$0.09 in 2027. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 2026-0.13 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth to at least $11.4M in 2025-Q3 and $6.1M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Satellogic, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $11.4M in 2025-Q3 and >= $6.1M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Revenue falls below $11M in 2025-Q3 or below $6M in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $15.919M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.4M in 2025-Q3 and >= $6.1M in 2026-Q1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202615,919,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Growth was driven primarily by a $3.2 million increase in imagery ordered by new and existing Data & Analytics customers and a $8.3 million increase in Space Systems revenue.” “Financial Results for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 ● Revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2026, increased by $2.7 million, or 80%, to $6.1 million, compared to $3.4 million in the prior-year period.” Revenue was $15.919 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.09 → $-0.04 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.09 | $55,325,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.09 | $55,319,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.09 | $55,319,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.09 | $55,319,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.09 | $55,319,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.09 | $55,319,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.06 | $61,122,170 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.06 | $61,122,170 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.06 | $61,133,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.04 | $62,372,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.04 | $63,772,167 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.