Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SEA LTD (SE)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$75.63-5.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.73 → 4.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stability in leadership and management | A supporting condition in SEA LTD's published investment case. The stated target is No significant leadership changes. | Under Pressure | any significant leadership changes occur | Qualitative: No leadership changes, but CEO/COO sold shares CEO sold 5,164 shares; COO sold 50,000 shares. No management departures or replacements reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SE is a growth-sensitive Consumer Discretionary business, so its results may be affected by changes in the sector backdrop. The current long-term thesis is insufficiently established, and confidence in the evidence snapshot is low.
The latest valuation label is fair, but the snapshot does not provide peer comparisons or specific market expectations. Fragility is rated low because no fragility gates fired, though that does not resolve the uncertainty about the thesis.
Near-term earnings risk is described as low, but the snapshot also says SE has missed across recent quarters, so execution remains a concern. The multi-year fundamental path is unclear because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess the thesis.
Near term, continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as AMZN, BABA, and PDD could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance could weaken it. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.1% to below 2% would be a risk for this growth-sensitive sector.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the evidence supports a cautious, uncertain long-term thesis rather than a clear view on the business trajectory. The main signals to watch are SE’s execution and the direction of sector bellwethers and economic growth. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in SEA LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% profit margin. |
| Improving |
| falls below 10% profit margin in FY26 |
Net margin: 5.66% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% profit margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20265.659996 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from e-commerce operations | A primary condition in SEA LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY. | Intact | falls below 15% YoY growth in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate segment_revenue from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.87 → $4.61 · observed estimates
$36.91B → $38.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.87 | $36,907,448,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.87 | $36,907,448,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.87 | $36,907,458,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.87 | $36,907,458,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.25 | $36,352,329,620 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.25 | $36,352,329,620 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.25 | $36,352,329,620 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.25 | $36,352,329,620 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.87 | $36,907,458,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.25 | $36,352,329,620 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.87 | $36,907,458,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.87 | $36,907,458,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.87 | $36,907,458,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.25 | $36,344,250,450 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.25 | $36,344,250,450 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.25 | $36,344,250,450 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.85 | $36,899,702,314 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.72 | $38,397,051,179 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.74 | $38,450,573,226 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.74 | $38,548,012,718 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.74 | $38,548,012,718 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.74 | $38,548,012,718 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.74 | $38,548,012,718 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.74 | $38,548,012,718 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.74 | $38,548,012,718 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.76 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.75 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.75 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.75 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.75 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.75 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.75 | $38,794,166,564 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.74 | $38,775,589,641 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.74 | $38,764,982,221 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.74 | $38,764,982,221 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.74 | $38,764,982,221 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.74 | $38,764,982,221 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.74 | $38,764,982,221 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.73 | $38,753,316,213 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.73 | $38,753,316,213 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.73 | $38,753,316,213 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.73 | $38,753,316,213 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.71 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.70 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.70 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.70 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.70 | $38,829,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.64 | $38,820,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.64 | $38,820,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.64 | $38,820,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.64 | $38,820,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.64 | $38,820,531,719 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.61 | $38,817,027,169 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.61 | $38,817,027,169 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.61 | $38,817,027,169 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.61 | $38,817,027,169 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.61 | $38,817,027,169 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.61 | $38,817,027,169 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.61 | $38,817,027,169 | 11 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.