Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vivid Seats, Inc. (SEAT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.74-3.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SEAT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $30M to $40M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | Management plans $30M to $40M adjusted EBITDA. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $30 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SEAT is a high-risk, loss-making business pursuing growth alongside improving profitability and cash generation. Its long-term thesis is intact, though its signal recently shifted from mixed to cautious and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes SEAT as cheap versus peers, with a low-confidence model and an expectations gap that points to limited room between current expectations and the model’s view. The valuation tag is justified, and the available evidence does not flag concentrated fragility.
Near term, revenue has declined from late 2024 through 2026-Q2, even as management continues to guide for approximately $535 million of 2026 revenue. Adjusted EBITDA improved from $9.5 million in Q1 to $12.6 million in Q2, while operating cash flow supports the 2026 cash-flow goal; however, a recent earnings miss and a 49% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on SEAT delivering its 2026 revenue and profitability goals without reversing its recently raised guidance, which could damage management credibility. Near-term conditions could also benefit from Federal Reserve rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from large Communication Services companies, while sector headwinds and peer misses remain risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SEAT’s case rests on turning improving profitability and cash generation into sustained progress toward its targets, despite a difficult revenue trend and elevated execution risk. The long-term thesis remains intact, but the evidence calls for caution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets $20M free cash flow. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $20 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $-4.356M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $20 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026-4,356,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least $535M revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Vivid Seats, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $535 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $535 million in FY26 | Revenue: $103.948M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $535 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026103,948,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.83 → $-2.65 · observed estimates
$0.53B → $0.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.17 | $526,291,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.17 | $526,291,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.17 | $526,291,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.17 | $526,291,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.17 | $526,291,000 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.83 | $526,292,270 | 1 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.83 | $519,692,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.09 | $519,708,129 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.83 | $519,692,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.83 | $519,692,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.83 | $519,692,970 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.09 | $519,708,129 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.09 | $519,708,129 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.09 | $519,708,129 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.09 | $519,708,129 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.09 | $519,708,129 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.09 | $519,708,129 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.23 | $518,352,045 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.23 | $518,351,095 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.23 | $518,351,095 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.23 | $518,351,095 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.23 | $518,351,095 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.23 | $518,351,095 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.23 | $519,534,306 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.23 | $519,534,306 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.23 | $519,534,306 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.07 | $519,544,179 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.65 | $517,375,651 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.65 | $517,375,651 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.65 | $517,375,651 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.65 | $517,375,651 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.