Vivid Seats, Inc. (SEAT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.04+2.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 21.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 94.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SEAT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 4, 2026, Vivid Seats Inc. issued a press release providing financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information set forth under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securi…
Why it matters: Trends in Q3 revenue will show if the company can recover from recent declines. It will help assess future growth potential.
Watch forQ3 revenue is over $130 million. This shows the company is recovering.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $125 million. This shows the company is still declining.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA range is key for making money and running well. It shows the business can survive.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was between $30M and $40M. This shows strong performance in operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was under $25M. This shows there are still problems in operations.
Why it matters: A positive shift in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for Vivid Seats.
Watch forSector revenue growth is now positive. This means the sector is recovering.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is still negative. This means the sector is still declining.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss would mean better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q3 2026 is less than $14 million.
Worry ifNet loss in Q3 2026 exceeds $16 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$332 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,061 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,942 loss on $10,000 · 69.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Vivid Seats can improve its financial performance. This is crucial given its current loss-making status.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows larger losses. There is no improvement in finances.
Why it matters: Lower cancellations would support revenue growth. It suggests that demand for events is stable or improving.
Supportive ifEvent cancellations stay below 30,000 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEvent cancellations exceed 35,000 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Going over this revenue number shows good progress to the yearly revenue goal of $535M.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $120 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $100 million.
Why it matters: Sustaining this level of cash flow supports the goal of generating $20M unlevered free cash flow in 2026.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $20 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $15 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Generating free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifUnlevered free cash flow was $20M or more. This shows the company makes cash well.
Worry ifUnlevered free cash flow was below $15M. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Exceeding $600M in Marketplace GOV shows strong demand and supports revenue growth goals.
Supportive ifMarketplace GOV exceeds $600 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifMarketplace GOV stays below $600 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting $15M in adjusted EBITDA shows progress toward the annual target of $34M-$40M.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is $15 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $15 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows strong operations. This helps meet the $20M cash flow goal.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow remains positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow turns negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows recovery. This helps meet management's goals.
Watch forQ3 revenue shows growth compared to Q2 2026.
Also watch forQ3 revenue declines compared to Q2 2026.