Vivid Seats, Inc. (SEAT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.85+3.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -62.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 23.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 85.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
SEAT — director transition
Dated 2026-10-23
Director — Chelsea Grayson: The filing discloses the election of a new independent director to fill a vacancy, which is a routine board composition change rather than the departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Q1 and Q2 marketplace GOV were below their year-ago levels. A rise would support the stated return-to-growth goal; another drop would weaken it.
Watch forQ3 2026 marketplace GOV is above Q3 2025.
Also watch forQ3 2026 marketplace GOV is below Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Management has kept this goal while revenue fell year over year in the first half. Meeting it would show the business is moving toward growth.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue reaches about $535 million. Or management keeps that target and reports results on track to meet it.
Worry ifManagement cuts the 2026 revenue target, or full-year revenue lands well below $535 million.
Why it matters: The release will show whether the latest full-year goals still stand. It can also update the weak first-half sales and order trends.
Watch forThe November 5 release keeps the $2.3 billion to $2.6 billion GOV range and $34 million to $40 million EBITDA range.
Also watch forThe November 5 release cuts either range or reports results below the pace needed to meet it.
Why it matters: Management set a $20 million cash goal. Cash from operations was strong in Q1 and Q2, but that measure is not the same as unlevered free cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company reports about $20 million or more in unlevered free cash flow for 2026.
Worry ifThe company reports less than $20 million in 2026 unlevered free cash flow or lowers its goal.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$335 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,141 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,288 loss on $10,000 · 82.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.