Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.88+9.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
SEPN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-03-02
Other Events On March 1, 2026, the Company announced positive results from its Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating SEP-631, a potent and selective oral negative allosteric modulator (“NAM”) of Mas-related G protein-coupled receptor X2 (“MRGPRX2”), and outlined initial Phase 2 development strategy. Phase 1 Results SEP-631 was evaluated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 1 trial in healthy volunteers, including single-ascending dose, multiple-ascending dose and food-effect co…
Why it matters: Septerna dropped its earlier plan for a Phase 2b CSU study. A clear new study plan would show how it will test SEP-631 in patients.
Watch forSepterna names a signal-finding study, disease, and start window for SEP-631. It reports no further delay.
Also watch forSepterna reports no study plan, delays a named study, or ends work on SEP-631 in mast cell diseases.
Why it matters: Septerna reported $516.5 million in cash and said it can fund work into 2029. A sharp drop could put that timeline at risk.
Worry ifThe November 9 report shows cash below $500 million or cuts the stated runway before 2029.
Less concerning ifThe report shows cash at or above $500 million and keeps the stated runway into 2029.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $510 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,598 loss on $10,000 · 26.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.