Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.75-0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -20.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SEPN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-03-02
Other Events On March 1, 2026, the Company announced positive results from its Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating SEP-631, a potent and selective oral negative allosteric modulator (“NAM”) of Mas-related G protein-coupled receptor X2 (“MRGPRX2”), and outlined initial Phase 2 development strategy. Phase 1 Results SEP-631 was evaluated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 1 trial in healthy volunteers, including single-ascending dose, multiple-ascending dose and food-effect co…
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show if Septerna can keep running until 2029.
Watch forCash is over $500 million, which confirms operations can continue into 2029.
Also watch forCash falls below $500 million, raising worries about funding.
Why it matters: Progress on the TSHR NAM program will show steps toward a treatment for Graves’ disease.
Supportive ifA candidate has been chosen for the TSHR NAM program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the TSHR NAM program development.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue from this partnership helps Septerna's finances and plans.
Supportive ifRevenue from Novo Nordisk partnership rises above $27 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from Novo Nordisk partnership drops or stays below $26.7 million.
Why it matters: A clear cash runway supports ongoing operations. It affects financial stability and growth plans.
Worry ifManagement says cash runway lasts past 2029 without needing more money.
Less concerning ifManagement says cash runway is under 12 months without new funding.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $510 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,518 loss on $10,000 · 25.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Data from the Phase 1 trial will show if SEP-479 is a viable treatment for hypoparathyroidism.
Supportive ifPositive Phase 1 data shows that SEP-479 is safe and effective.
Worry ifNegative data or delays in reporting Phase 1 results for SEP-479.
Why it matters: Data from the Phase 1 trial will show if SEP-479 can be a daily treatment for hypoparathyroidism.
Supportive ifPhase 1 data shows the treatment is safe. It supports taking it once a day.
Worry ifData shows safety problems. The treatment does not support taking it once a day.
Why it matters: Progress on SEP-631 is crucial for future growth. It shows the company's innovation ability.
Watch forManagement gives a good update on Phase 2 development in the next earnings call.
Also watch forManagement is late or has problems with the Phase 2 development of SEP-631.
Why it matters: Starting the Phase 2b trial will show progress in treating mast cell-driven diseases.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the initiation of the Phase 2b trial for SEP-631.
Worry ifDelay or cancellation of the Phase 2b trial for SEP-631.
Why it matters: Progress with SEP-631 matters for Septerna's plans. It will help their future income.
Watch forA press release confirms that SEP-631 has moved to the next stage of development.
Also watch forNo news or delays are shared about SEP-631's development.
Why it matters: Starting the Phase 2b trial shows Septerna wants to develop treatments for mast cell diseases.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the Phase 2b trial for SEP-631 in chronic spontaneous urticaria.
Worry ifDelay in starting the Phase 2b trial due to unresolved issues.