Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Septerna, Inc. (SEPN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.35-1.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SEPN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash runway supports operations at least through 2029 | The company plans to fund operations through 2029. | Intact | Cash runway falls short of supporting operations into 2029 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Septerna expects its existing cash runway to fund operations at least into 2029.” “Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results • Cash Position: Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $516.5 million as of June 30, 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology investment, not a profitable, established compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: programs are advancing, but recent financial performance remains weak and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation model indicates a durable premium of 2.13 times peers, while confidence in that estimate is low. The expectations gap is 0.29 and the priced-in tag is unjustified, with no fragility gates triggered; the evidence does not specify exactly what operating expectations the market assumes.
Near term, Septerna is advancing SEP-479, with Phase 1 data expected in early 2027, and plans Phase 2b trials for SEP-631 in chronic spontaneous urticaria in the second half of 2026. Collaboration revenue rose slightly from the first to the second quarter of 2026, while cash and marketable securities edged lower but still support management’s stated runway into 2029. Despite three recent earnings beats, the snapshot rates recent performance as weak; guidance cuts and further economic weakening remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on clinical progress, especially upcoming SEP-479 data and the planned SEP-631 trials, alongside management’s ability to preserve cash runway. A guidance cut or continued weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business backdrop, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, SEPN’s long-term thesis is a high-risk clinical-development story with meaningful cash runway but limited proof of improving fundamentals. Its progress depends on trial execution, future data, and funding discipline. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue from Novo Nordisk collaboration reaches at least $26.5 million in Q1 2026 | Septerna grows revenue from its Novo Nordisk deal to $26.5 million in Q1 2026. | Improving | Revenue from Novo Nordisk falls below $21.5 million in Q1 2026 | Revenue: $26.746M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 26.5 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 202626,746,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Revenue: Revenue from the Novo Nordisk collaboration was $26.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, compared to $0.1 million from Vertex for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.” “o Revenue: Revenue from the Novo Nordisk collaboration was $26.5 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, compared to $0.2 million from Vertex for the quarter ended March 31, 2025.” Revenue was $26.746 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Advance SEP-631 into Phase 2 development | It advances its drug SEP-631 into Phase 2 trials. | Improving | SEP-631 development stalls before or during Phase 2 trials | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.39 → $-2.28 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.39 | $65,849,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.39 | $65,849,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.39 | $65,849,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.66 | $65,833,550 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.66 | $65,833,550 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.66 | $65,833,550 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.66 | $65,833,550 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.39 | $65,849,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.39 | $65,849,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.66 | $65,833,550 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.66 | $65,833,550 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.66 | $65,833,550 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.66 | $65,833,550 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.39 | $65,819,999 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.28 | $73,620,000 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.