SMITHFIELD FOODS (SFD)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.97-0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 SFD trades at 8.2× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits well above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcff | 12M | $103.09 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $32.61 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $34.44 | 8.5 | 3.85 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $23.61 | 11.7 | 2.03 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $33.49 |
| 12.5 |
| 2.67 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $28.92 | 0.7 | 39.10 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $22.56 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $25.31 | 9.5 | 2.67 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $34.72 | 12.5 | 2.77 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $35.91 | 11.7 | 3.08 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $27.50 | 12.5 | 2.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $29.38 | 0.7 | 39.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $20.78 | 9.5 | 2.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $47.49 | 11.7 | 4.08 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $24.11 | 12.5 | 1.92 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $29.68 | 0.7 | 40.13 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $18.22 | 9.5 | 1.92 | Analyst | high |