SMITHFIELD FOODS (SFD)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.72+7.41%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SFD — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On October 14, 2026, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Senior Unsecured Delayed Draw Term Loan Credit Agreement with the lenders from time to time party thereto, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the arrangers, bookrunners and other agents party thereto (the “Term Loan Credit Agreement”). The Term Loan Credit Agreement, among other things, provides for aggregate delayed draw term loan commitments, on a senior uns…
Why it matters: Lower hog prices have cut expected results. A loss beyond the guided range would add pressure to company profit.
Worry ifFY 2026 Hog Production adjusted operating results show a loss of less than $25 million.
Less concerning ifFY 2026 Hog Production adjusted results are within the $25 million loss to $25 million profit range.
Why it matters: Fresh Pork swung to an $89 million loss in Q3. Another large loss could push full-year results below the new outlook.
Worry ifFY 2026 Fresh Pork adjusted operating loss is greater than $50 million.
Less concerning ifFY 2026 Fresh Pork adjusted results are a loss of $50 million or less, or break even.
Why it matters: The full-year profit range fell from $1.225–$1.375 billion to $900 million–$1 billion. Results below the new range would show more strain.
Worry ifFY 2026 adjusted operating profit is less than $900 million.
Less concerning ifFY 2026 adjusted operating profit is at least $900 million. This meets or tops the latest range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $260 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,765 loss on $10,000 · 37.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.