SMITHFIELD FOODS (SFD)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.97-0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers
SFD — dividend update
Dated 2026-01-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On January 20, 2026, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (“ Smithfield ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Nathan’s Famous, Inc. (“ Nathan’s ”), and Boardwalk Merger Sub Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Smithfield (“ Merger Sub ”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, and upon the terms and subject to the conditions thereof and in accordance with the General Corporation Law of the State of Delaware (“ DGCL ”), Merger Su…
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects revenue growth. A decline could signal deeper issues in the market.
Worry ifConsumer spending drops a lot, hurting Smithfield's sales.
Less concerning ifConsumer spending goes up, leading to better sales for Smithfield.
Why it matters: Sales growth shows progress. It points to better demand and market conditions.
Supportive ifQ2 total company sales report shows an increase of at least 1% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 total company sales report shows a decrease or no growth year over year.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to improving revenue. The last quarter saw a decline.
Supportive ifTotal company sales increase by at least 1% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifTotal company sales decrease or remain flat year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: A beat would indicate strong performance and could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings exceed analyst expectations by at least 5%.
Worry ifQ2 earnings fall short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $275 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,527 loss on $10,000 · 25.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key for long-term health. A positive change indicates recovery from macro pressures.
Supportive ifTotal sales show growth compared to last year.
Worry ifTotal sales stay the same or drop compared to last year.
Why it matters: Lower spending may show less investment in growth and improvements.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $350 million for FY 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is between $350 million and $450 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good cost management and efficient operations. It helps the company's growth story.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted operating profit was $1.325 billion or more.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted operating profit was less than $1.325 billion.
Why it matters: PPI changes can indicate shifts in input costs. This affects Smithfield's profit margins and pricing strategies.
Watch forPPI rises a lot, showing higher input costs for Smithfield.
Also watch forPPI falls, suggesting lower input costs and better margins for Smithfield.
Why it matters: A drop in the margin signals weakness in the key Packaged Meats segment. This could affect overall profitability.
Worry ifPackaged Meats profit margin drops below 12.9% in Q3.
Less concerning ifPackaged Meats operating profit margin stays at or above 12.9% in Q3.
Why it matters: Flat or declining sales indicate struggles in the market. This could impact future growth expectations.
Worry ifTotal company sales growth remains flat or declines in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal company sales growth improves. It goes above low-single-digit growth in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower guidance shows ongoing economic pressures. It may point to bigger problems.
Worry ifManagement lowers profit guidance to less than $1.225 billion.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises profit guidance to more than $1.225 billion.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows disciplined capital allocation. It supports long-term growth plans.
Supportive ifCapital spending is between $350 million and $450 million for the fiscal year.
Worry ifCapital spending goes outside the $350 million to $450 million range.