Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.74-6.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFIX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers
SFIX — officer change
Dated 2026-09-25
Director — J. William Gurley: The filing discloses a director's planned retirement from the board at the end of his term, which is a routine succession event rather than a sudden executive departure.
Why it matters: Stitch Fix guided to a year-over-year revenue drop in Q1. Results below $323 million would miss the low end of that range.
Worry ifQ1 FY2027 net revenue is below $323 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY2027 net revenue is at least $323 million and within the $323 million to $328 million range.
Why it matters: Gross margin was 43.6% in Q4. Management's FY2027 range starts at 43%, so a lower result would mark a break from its stated floor.
Worry ifFY2027 gross margin is below 43%.
Less concerning ifFY2027 gross margin is 43% or higher, within or above the stated 43% to 44% range.
Why it matters: Q4 active clients fell 1.4% from the prior quarter and year. A return to growth would test whether the client base can stabilize.
Watch forActive clients rise quarter over quarter in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forActive clients fall quarter over quarter in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: A checkout change limited which clients could request another Fix. Management said it was fixed and would not affect results beyond Q1.
Worry ifAfter Q1, the company reports another Fix-request limit linked to the August checkout change. Or it says the issue remains unfixed.
Less concerning ifThe company reports no more Fix-request limits linked to the change. The next quarter has no related volume impact.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$266 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $703 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,188 loss on $10,000 · 61.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management tied the lower profit outlook to ad and technology spending. Results below $27 million would miss its stated range.
Worry ifFY2027 adjusted EBITDA is below $27 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFY2027 adjusted EBITDA is at least $27 million and within the $27 million to $42 million range.