Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-01 · fmp
Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.94+7.30%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SFIX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve positive adjusted EBITDA of about $8.5 million in Q4 2026 | It targets positive adjusted EBITDA of $7 million to $10 million in Q4 2026. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $7 million in Q4 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA of $53.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.0%.” “• Adjusted EBITDA of $13.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.9%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-01 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view has improved, with momentum rising and the signal moving to mildly favorable, but confidence is medium and the thesis state remains watch.
SFIX is valued cheaply versus peers, and the evidence labels its pricing as justified, with no fragility flags. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, though the model has only medium confidence and the company remains loss-making.
Near term, results show progress: full-year revenue grew 6.4%, while adjusted EBITDA rose and its margin stayed near 4%; gross margin also remained around management’s stated range. These trends support the multi-year case, but recent performance is still weak versus its industry cohort, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
The key multi-year test is whether management can sustain revenue growth, maintain gross margin, and keep improving adjusted EBITDA toward positive adjusted EBITDA. Near term, the next guidance update matters; results and guidance from TJX, ROST, and BURL may also signal whether the sector backdrop remains supportive.
SFIX’s business trends have improved, but the long-term thesis remains unproven given losses, high risk, and weak relative performance. The next phase depends on continued execution and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain gross margin between 43% and 44% in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Stitch Fix, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 43% to 44%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 43% in FY26 | Gross margin: 43.58% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 43% to 44%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 24, 202643.580812 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Gross profit of $588.5 million, an increase of 4.5% year-over-year and gross margin of 43.7%, a decrease of 70 basis points year-over-year.” “• Gross margin of 43.7%, a decrease of 50 basis points year-over-year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve fiscal year 2026 revenue near $1.35 billion | A primary condition in Stitch Fix, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.346 billion and <= $1.351 billion. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.346 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $324.418M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.346 billion and <= $1.351 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 24, 2026324,418,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.08 → $-0.09 · observed estimates
$1.39B → $1.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.08 | $1,386,736,842 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.08 | $1,386,736,842 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.08 | $1,386,736,842 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.08 | $1,386,736,842 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.08 | $1,386,736,842 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.08 | $1,386,736,842 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.09 | $1,383,989,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.09 | $1,383,989,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.09 | $1,383,989,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.09 | $1,383,980,414 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.09 | $1,383,994,254 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.09 | $1,383,994,254 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.09 | $1,384,022,474 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.