Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.40+0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHAK
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $69, SHAK's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 60× p/e (3.6× the 17× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~93% near-term growth vs our ~16% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $36 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $60–$115. Note: our $36 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($60–$115). Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $64, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $77.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $15.96 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $18.82 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $46.90 | 11.1 | 4.12 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$60.00 – $115.00 (median $79.00) · 21 analysts · as of 2026-08-06
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $28.10 |
| 21.5 |
| 1.31 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $34.09 | 0.9 | 37.08 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $60.50 | 52.5 | 1.15 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $13.51 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $20.31 | 16.9 | 1.20 | Triangulated | high |