Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.40+0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHAK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 93.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
SHAK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Shake Shack Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and shareholder letter announcing its financial results for the fiscal first quarter ended April 1, 2026. The full text of the press release and shareholder letter are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or inc…
Why it matters: More openings show strong growth plans. This could lead to more revenue.
Supportive ifShake Shack opens more than 16 new Company-operated Shacks in 2026.
Worry ifShake Shack will open fewer than 16 new Company-operated Shacks in 2026.
Why it matters: Michelle Hook's experience may lead to changes. These changes could help financial performance.
Supportive ifManagement shares new financial plans. These plans will increase revenue or profit margins.
Worry ifNo changes in financial plans or more drops in revenue and profit margins.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Shake Shack can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Also watch forEPS misses analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Lower same-Shack sales growth means weaker customer demand. This will hurt revenue.
Worry ifSame-Shack sales growth is below 2.5% in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifSame-Shack sales growth remains above 3.0%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$183 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,000 loss on $10,000 · 50.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Store expansion is a key priority for growth, and delays could hurt future sales.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new store openings that total at least 10 locations in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new store openings announced for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Lower adjusted EBITDA shows weaker profits. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $225 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA exceeds $235 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can lower costs and raise profit margins.
Supportive ifManagement says operational costs will drop by at least 5% next quarter.
Worry ifOperational costs go up or stay the same even with efficiency efforts.
Why it matters: Christiane Pendarvis's experience may help Shake Shack grow.
Supportive ifNew plans or partnerships announced by Pendarvis.
Worry ifNo new plans or changes announced after her appointment.
Why it matters: Better digital tools can boost sales and help customers.
Supportive ifLaunch of a new digital ordering app that makes it easier to use.
Worry ifNo big updates or improvements to digital tools have been shared.
Why it matters: A margin below 22.0% shows rising costs. This affects how much money the restaurant makes.
Worry ifRestaurant profit margin is below 22.0% in future quarters.
Less concerning ifRestaurant profit margin is above 23.0%.