Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$72.82+3.82%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHAK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 96.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
SHAK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Shake Shack Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and shareholder letter announcing its financial results for the fiscal first quarter ended April 1, 2026. The full text of the press release and shareholder letter are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or inc…
Why it matters: Q2 same-Shack sales rose 3.5%. Higher growth would show that sales at older Shacks are gaining pace.
Supportive ifThe November 5 results show Q3 same-Shack sales growth above 3.5% year over year.
Worry ifThe November 5 results show Q3 same-Shack sales growth below 2.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 food costs rose to 28.8% of Shack sales, while labor costs were 25.1%. Further increases would squeeze Shack profits.
Worry ifQ3 food costs exceed 28.8% of Shack sales, or labor costs exceed 25.1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 food costs are below 28.8% and labor costs are below 25.1% of Shack sales.
Why it matters: Shake Shack opened 16 company-run Shacks in Q2 and has kept adding stores. Fewer openings would slow its expansion plan.
Worry ifThe company reports at least 60 new company-run Shacks in 2026.
Less concerning ifThe company reports fewer than 60 new company-run Shacks in 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $426 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,000 loss on $10,000 · 50.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.