Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.01+6.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage cash flow and liquidity including new credit facilities | New credit facilities improve cash flow management. | Intact | Cash flow management fails to secure new credit facilities | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SI is a high-growth, loss-making business with elevated risk, rather than an established compounder. Management is on track with its 2026 revenue-growth goal, but the multi-year thesis remains under watch because recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.
The evidence describes SI as trading at a durable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the model. Valuation confidence is low, and the evidence does not provide enough detail to say precisely what growth or profitability the market assumes.
Near term, management’s raised 2026 revenue guidance and recent revenue growth support the growth case. Operating losses have widened as investment increased, so progress toward better operating income remains limited; new credit facilities and $99 million in cash and marketable securities provide liquidity support. Recent financial performance remains weak relative to the industry, and the evidence flags a history of quarterly misses despite a low near-term miss-risk tier.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether revenue growth continues while operating losses become more manageable. A reversal of the recently raised guidance would damage credibility, while continued weakness in jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SI combines a strong stated growth trajectory and improved liquidity with widening losses, elevated risk, and demanding expectations. The long-term thesis depends on sustained growth and better operating progress; evidence confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Shoulder Innovations, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <-10.0 million. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating loss exceeds -10 million in FY26 |
Operating income: $-10.036M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <-10.0 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-10,036,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Operating loss in the first quarter of 2026 was $9.0 million, compared to a loss of $4.3 million in the first quarter of 2025.” “Operating loss in the second quarter of 2026 was $10.0 million, compared to a loss of $5.9 million in the second quarter of 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve full year 2026 revenue growth of 42% to 46% | A primary condition in Shoulder Innovations, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=67.0 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $67 million for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Outlook Shoulder Innovations expects net revenue for the full year 2026 to be in the range of $65 million to $68 million, representing growth of approximately 37% to 44% over full year 2025 net revenue.” “2026 Financial Outlook Shoulder Innovations expects net revenue for the full year 2026 to be in the range of $67 million to $69 million, representing growth of approximately 42% to 46% over full year 2025 net revenue.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.39 → $-1.57 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.39 | $85,968,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.40 | $85,967,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.40 | $85,967,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.40 | $85,967,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.39 | $85,968,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.29 | $85,791,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.29 | $85,791,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.29 | $85,791,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.29 | $85,791,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.29 | $85,791,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.29 | $85,791,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.09 | $87,688,120 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.09 | $87,688,120 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.31 | $85,792,125 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.57 | $88,399,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.57 | $88,400,650 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.57 | $88,398,150 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.57 | $86,999,625 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.