Simon Property Group (SPG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$227.09+0.93%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $227.09. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $227 SPG trades at 10× p/ffo, below its 13× p/ffo peer median, but our blended $161 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $194–$220. Note: our $161 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($194–$220). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $238 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$194.00 – $220.00 (median $208.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $208.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $161.54 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $115.70 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $116.38 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $46.85 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $92.47 | 13.2 | 7.00 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $233.81 | 23.3 | 10.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $290.88 | 13.2 | 22.00 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $161.05 | 7.9 | 20.46 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $177.77 | 34.1 | 5.22 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $32.75 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $156.29 | 29.9 | 5.22 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $66.56 | 13.2 | 5.03 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $155.13 | 13.2 | 11.74 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $242.85 | 23.3 | 10.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $442.40 | 13.2 | 33.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $166.56 | 7.9 | 21.16 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $295.47 | 34.1 | 8.68 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $259.77 | 29.9 | 8.68 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $219.03 | 13.2 | 16.57 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $249.06 | 23.3 | 10.70 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $585.07 | 13.2 | 44.26 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $170.26 | 7.9 | 21.63 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $302.04 | 34.1 | 8.87 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $265.54 | 29.9 | 8.87 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.