Simon Property Group (SPG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$226.55-0.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 20 industry peers
SPG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026, Simon Property Group, Inc. issued a press release containing information on earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and other matters. A copy of the press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference into this report.
Why it matters: Occupancy held at 96.0% in Q2, while rent per square foot rose 6.3%. A decline could weaken leasing income.
Watch forU.S. mall and outlet occupancy stays at or above 96.0% in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forU.S. mall and outlet occupancy falls below 96.0%.
Why it matters: Retail sales can give a timely read on shopper demand before Simon's next report. Strong sales may support tenant health.
Watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows growth from a year ago.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows a drop from a year ago.
Why it matters: Q2 Real Estate FFO per share grew 7.9% to $3.29. Another gain would support the higher full-year outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 Real Estate FFO per share is above $3.29 year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Real Estate FFO per share is below $3.29 year over year.
Why it matters: Simon raised its full-year range in August. Results within or above it would support the growth story.
Supportive ifSimon keeps its 2026 Real Estate FFO per share range at $13.20–$13.30 or raises it.
Worry ifSimon cuts the range below $13.20 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$62 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $173 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,652 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Eli Simon took over as CEO after David Simon's death. Q3 results and any leadership changes will show how smoothly the handoff is going.
Watch forThe next report shows results within or above the $13.20–$13.30 full-year FFO range, with Eli Simon still leading the company.
Also watch forSimon cuts its full-year FFO range or reports a change in the CEO role.