Simon Property Group (SPG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$209.44-0.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SPG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026, Simon Property Group, Inc. issued a press release containing information on earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and other matters. A copy of the press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference into this report.
Why it matters: A drop in cash from operations can show problems. This may hurt liquidity and raise worries about financial health.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $800 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash from operations stays above $800 million.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can impact investor trust. They can also change company direction.
Watch forThe market reacted positively. The stock price went up after Eli Simon was appointed.
Also watch forThe market reacted negatively. The stock price went down after the transition.
Why it matters: If occupancy drops, it may show less demand and hurt rental income.
Worry ifOccupancy rates drop below 96% in the next report.
Less concerning ifOccupancy rates remain at or above 96% in the next report.
Why it matters: Higher sales per square foot mean better tenant performance. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifRetailer sales per square foot increases above $819 in the next quarter.
Worry ifRetailer sales per square foot drops below $819.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is growing and how operations are doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth is speeding up compared to earlier quarters.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue is still going down or not changing.
Why it matters: If guidance goes up, it shows good performance and management's confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises full-year 2026 Real Estate FFO per share guidance above $13.30.
Worry ifGuidance remains at or below the current range of $13.20 to $13.30.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means more efficiency. It also shows stronger financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations improves to above 50% of net income.
Worry ifCash from operations remains below 50% of net income.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps support operations and growth efforts.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations stays below $800 million.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong cash flow and a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board announces an increase in the quarterly common stock dividend above $2.25.
Worry ifThe Board maintains the dividend at $2.25 or lowers it.
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may show problems in retail that hurt Simon's revenue.
Worry ifRetailer sales per square foot growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRetailer sales per square foot growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with investments and keeps operations stable.
Supportive ifCash from operations shows a year-over-year increase of at least 5%.
Worry ifCash from operations is down compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $173 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,155 loss on $10,000 · 11.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.