Spero Therapeutics Inc (SPRO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.07+2.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -80.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -92.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
SPRO — COO transition
Dated 2026-10-27
COO — Timothy Keutzer: The COO is retiring after 11 years with a planned consulting transition period, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: A trial start would add patient data from a second disease area for SP001. A delay would slow that test.
Watch forInnovent starts enrolling patients in its China Phase 2 Sjögren’s disease trial by March 31, 2027.
Also watch forInnovent has not started enrollment by March 31, 2027, or announces a delay.
Why it matters: Spero reported no revenue in Q2 2026 and remains loss-making. Cash updates will test its runway plan.
Worry ifA later company update cuts the cash runway to before the second half of 2029.
Less concerning ifA later company update keeps the cash runway in the second half of 2029 or extends it.
Why it matters: Starting the IgG4-RD trial would move SP001 from planning into patient testing.
Supportive ifSpero starts enrolling patients in the SP001 Phase 2 IgG4-RD trial by June 30, 2027.
Worry ifSpero has not started enrolling patients by June 30, 2027, or reports a later start date.
Why it matters: GSK plans to launch Utebzi by year-end. A timely launch starts the test of its commercial value.
Supportive ifGSK makes Utebzi available to U.S. patients by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifUtebzi is not available to U.S. patients by December 31, 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $554 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,510 loss on $10,000 · 65.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The update can show progress on Utebzi’s launch and SP001 plans. It can also refresh cash and runway details.
Watch forThe November 12 update confirms Utebzi is on track for year-end U.S. availability and SP001 remains on track for Q2 2027.
Also watch forThe November 12 update reports a delay to Utebzi’s launch or SP001’s planned Q2 2027 trial start.