Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Spero Therapeutics Inc (SPRO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.07+2.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPRO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective drug commercialization without major friction | A supporting condition in Spero Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No major commercial setbacks. | Improving | Significant commercial friction reported that limits sales | Qualitative: FDA approval secured vs no major setbacks FDA approval of Utebzi and $105M royalty financing extend runway to 2029, supporting commercial execution. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth story, not an established earnings compounder. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact because recent financial performance remains relatively strong, but earnings quality is fragile and the company is still loss-making.
The valuation is tagged as stretched, although the model also describes SPRO as cheap versus peers; this mixed signal has medium confidence. The expectations gap is modest, and the fragility assessment points to weak execution quality rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, the next results carry elevated risk: the estimated miss probability is 39%, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Over the multi-year view, Utebzi’s planned US launch by the end of 2026 and the SP001 Phase 2 plan for Q2 2027 are key execution steps; the added royalty financing supports management’s stated cash runway into the second half of 2029.
The thesis depends on Utebzi gaining commercial traction and SP001 advancing into its planned Phase 2 study, while management preserves the extended cash runway. Near-term sentiment also depends on guidance, employment data, and whether healthcare bellwethers continue to report strong results and raise guidance.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SPRO’s thesis remains intact but fragile: recent performance and funding support the setup, while losses, uncertain commercialization, and clinical execution leave meaningful risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Spero Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.67. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains negative in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.16 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.67. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026-0.16 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from tebipenem HBr sales | This approval could start sales and improve results. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 30% in FY27 | Revenue growth: -100% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=53% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026-100 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.67 → $-0.93 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.67 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.67 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.67 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.67 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.67 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.67 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.67 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.67 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.10 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.88 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.93 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.93 | $3,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.93 | $3,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.93 | $3,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.93 | $3,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.93 | $3,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.