SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.00-1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPSC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $83 SPSC trades at 20× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $109 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits above the analyst range. Analysts target $55–$100. Note: our $109 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($55–$100). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $62.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $379.11 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $383.84 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $49.47 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$55.00 – $100.00 (median $62.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-08-19
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $44.47 |
| 13.6 |
| 2.92 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $100.90 | 18.6 | 5.43 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $90.68 | 17.5 | 5.19 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $79.63 | 3.8 | 21.12 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $77.66 | 18.3 | 4.24 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $36.72 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $74.91 | 17.7 | 4.24 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $123.39 | 27.4 | 4.50 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $153.46 | 18.6 | 8.26 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $103.98 | 17.5 | 5.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $96.76 | 3.8 | 25.66 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $108.98 | 18.3 | 5.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $105.12 | 17.7 | 5.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $202.95 | 18.6 | 10.93 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $118.04 | 17.5 | 6.75 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $109.85 | 3.8 | 29.13 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $123.72 | 18.3 | 6.75 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $119.34 | 17.7 | 6.75 | Analyst | high |