SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$85.24-0.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SPSC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-05-21
Chief Financial Officer — Kimberly Nelson: Kimberly Nelson is retiring after a smooth transition period with her successor, Joseph Del Preto.
Why it matters: The latest full-year revenue range starts at $786.9 million. A miss would deepen concern about slowing growth.
Worry ifReported 2026 revenue is below $786.9 million, the low end of the latest guidance.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 revenue is at least $786.9 million.
Why it matters: The low end of Q4 guidance is $199.3 million. A miss would add to the slower 4% Q3 growth rate.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $199.3 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue is at least $199.3 million.
Why it matters: The company reported 17% adjusted EBITDA growth in Q3. A Q4 miss would weaken evidence of margin gains.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is below $72.0 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is at least $72.0 million.
Why it matters: SPS serves retailers and other supply chain firms. Slower retail sales may weigh on demand for its network services.
Worry ifThe November 17 Retail Sales report shows growth below the prior reported pace.
Less concerning ifThe November 17 Retail Sales report shows growth at or above the prior reported pace.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $468 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,773 loss on $10,000 · 47.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.