SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.00-1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
SPSC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-05-21
Chief Financial Officer — Kimberly Nelson: Kimberly Nelson is retiring after a smooth transition period with her successor, Joseph Del Preto.
Why it matters: Good feedback would show the AI plan is working. It would help customers more.
Supportive ifCustomer stories or reviews show big savings from MAX.
Worry ifBad feedback or no response from customers using MAX.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs. This shows better control and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was over 34% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 34% in Q3.
Why it matters: If guidance is below $60.9 million, it shows profit problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 2026 is below $60.9 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 2026 is $60.9 million or more.
Why it matters: The MAX launch could drive new sales and enhance customer satisfaction. This aligns with management's AI expansion strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of MAX being launched to all SPS Fulfillment customers.
Worry ifDelay or cancellation of the MAX launch.
Why it matters: Cash from operations above $55 million shows strong cash flow. It helps management's focus on cash.
Supportive ifCash from operations was above $55 million.
Worry ifCash from operations was below $55 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 4% would signal a slowdown compared to the previous quarter's growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at less than 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at 4% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Good AI use can help keep customers and attract new ones. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifCustomer growth reported above 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifCustomer growth reported below 3% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong revenue growth. It shows management's focus on making more money.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $198.3 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $196.3 million.
Why it matters: Updates may show that management trusts the stock. They also believe in the company's finances.
Supportive ifThey announce more share buybacks beyond the $300 million they already approved.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Showing savings from MAX would support the AI plan. It would help get more customers.
Supportive ifReported savings of hundreds of thousands of dollars for beta users from MAX.
Worry ifNo savings or customer feedback shows MAX has little value.
Why it matters: If costs keep going down, it shows problems with managing money. This could hurt future profits.
Worry ifOperating income decreases from $24.56 million in Q1 2026 to below $24 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income goes up to $25 million or more in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow growth supports ongoing investments and growth initiatives. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $66.7M in Q2, which is 20% growth year over year.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $66.7M in Q2.
Why it matters: New plans from the CFO may change profits and stock value.
Watch forThe new CFO, Joseph Del Preto, announced new plans.
Also watch forNo big updates or plans from the new CFO in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Lower earnings guidance shows problems with making money and growing.
Worry ifNet income per diluted share guidance for Q2 2026 is below $0.53.
Less concerning ifNet income per diluted share guidance for Q2 2026 exceeds $0.56.
Why it matters: More buybacks show confidence in the company's worth and future.
Supportive ifThere will be an announcement of share buybacks over $200 million.
Worry ifNo news on more share buybacks or a cut in buyback plans.
Why it matters: The new CFO may bring changes that affect financial strategy. This could influence investor sentiment.
Watch forGood financial performance was reported in the next quarter after the CFO change.
Also watch forBad financial performance was reported in the next quarter after the CFO change.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $480 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,585 loss on $10,000 · 55.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.