Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
SR Bancorp, Inc. (SRBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$18.72-1.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.85 → 0.85 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SRBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Initiate third stock repurchase program for up to 10% of shares | SR Bancorp plans a third buyback program for up to 10% of shares. | Intact | Buyback program is not initiated or is materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap bank with a loan-growth thesis, not yet a clearly durable earnings compounder. The thesis is on watch because recent results sit below the industry cohort, though the evidence does not show a fresh break.
The valuation is classified as expensive, with a 64% premium versus peers, despite a separate model signal that it is cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in assessment says weak execution is reflected only to a limited degree, so the valuation picture is mixed.
Near term, loan growth is a positive: net loans rose from $901.2 million at June 30 to $947.4 million at September 30, with management citing commercial and residential mortgage demand. But earnings quality is fragile, and two recent earnings misses plus a run of misses leave execution risk; the stated miss risk is 35%.
The multi-year view hinges on whether loan originations continue to grow without further weakening earnings execution. Near-term guidance cuts or Fed rate cuts are identified as unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers HDB, IBN, and USB would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SRBK has evidence of loan growth, but recent misses, fragile earnings quality, and conflicting peer-valuation signals make the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It aims to maintain a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.05 per quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.05 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. May 15, 20260.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve EPS guidance of $0.32 for fiscal year ending June 30, 2026 | The company targets EPS of $0.32 for fiscal year 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.32 for fiscal year 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.32 for fiscal year ending 2026-06-30. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. May 15, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.85 → $0.85 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.85 | $86,953,930 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.85 | $86,953,930 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.85 | $86,953,930 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.85 | $86,953,930 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.85 | $86,953,930 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.85 | $62,413,546 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.85 | $62,413,546 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.85 | $62,352,548 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.