SR Bancorp, Inc. (SRBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.76+1.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SRBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 41.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
SRBK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 28, 2026, SR Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Somerset Regal Bank, issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the results is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any…
Why it matters: Finishing this shows good capital management. It also shows a focus on shareholder value.
Supportive ifThey announced the end of the third stock buyback program.
Worry ifNo announcement of completion by the end of the year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show consistent earnings performance and support EPS guidance.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 is reported at or above $2.4 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 falls below $2.4 million.
Why it matters: If net income stays low, it shows ongoing challenges in profitability. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifNet income was below $1 million for two straight quarters.
Less concerning ifNet income was above $1 million for two straight quarters.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend at $0.06 would show strong financial health and commitment to shareholders. A cut could signal trouble.
Watch forThe company maintains the quarterly dividend at $0.06 in the next quarter.
Also watch forThe company might cut the quarterly dividend to less than $0.06 next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$64 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $193 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $828 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect loan demand and net interest income.
Watch forThe FOMC raises interest rates. This leads to more money from loan interest.
Also watch forThe FOMC lowers interest rates. This leads to less money from loan interest.
Why it matters: Loan growth over 10% shows strong demand and good lending. This can help earnings.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds 10% YoY in the next quarter.
Worry ifLoan growth is below 10% YoY in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The sector is easing. If SR Bancorp's revenue growth drops, it signals potential trouble ahead.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median of 15% in upcoming earnings.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: If net income drops below $1 million, it shows profit problems. Investors may react badly.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 falls below $1 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 stays above $1 million.
Why it matters: Meeting the EPS guidance shows the company is on track for growth. This is important for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQuarterly EPS reported at or above $0.32 for the next quarter.
Worry ifQuarterly EPS was less than $0.32.
Why it matters: Progress on the repurchase program could signal management's confidence in the stock. This impacts shareholder value.
Supportive ifThe company finished at least 50% of the stock buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates on stock repurchase program progress in the next quarter.