Simpson Manufacturing (SSD)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$180.97+1.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SSD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $181 SSD trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median — but our blended $156 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $192 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $199.99 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $236.09 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $18.77 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $101.56 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.44/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $189.14 |
| 11.6 |
| 16.08 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $213.28 | 18.7 | 11.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $156.00 | 16.4 | 9.50 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $107.74 | 1.8 | 58.97 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $173.46 | 19.5 | 8.89 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $68.08 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $197.35 | 22.2 | 8.89 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $174.85 | 18.9 | 9.26 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $259.26 | 18.7 | 13.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $168.89 | 16.4 | 10.29 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $118.10 | 1.8 | 64.64 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $200.73 | 19.5 | 10.29 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $228.38 | 22.2 | 10.29 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $295.31 | 18.7 | 15.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $179.31 | 16.4 | 10.92 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $125.39 | 1.8 | 68.63 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $213.12 | 19.5 | 10.92 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $242.47 | 22.2 | 10.92 | Analyst | high |