Simpson Manufacturing (SSD)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$180.97+1.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SSD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
SSD — credit agreement
Dated 2025-12-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On December 16, 2025, Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (the “Company”) entered into that certain Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement”), among the Company, the subsidiaries of the Company party thereto as guarantors, the lenders party thereto, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association (“Wells Fargo”), as administrative agent, and the other parties party thereto. The Second Amended and Restated Cr…
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control. It also shows strong profits.
Supportive ifOperating margin is over 20% for Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 20% for Q3.
Why it matters: Continued EPS growth supports management's goal of outpacing net sales growth. This trend is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS exceeds $3.09, showing growth over Q2's figure.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $3.09, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: New repurchases show that the company believes in its financial health and stock value.
Supportive ifThey announced more share repurchases beyond the $100 million that is left.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements in Q2.
Why it matters: Housing starts data impacts demand for Simpson's products. A decline could signal market weakness.
Watch forU.S. housing starts increase year-over-year, supporting demand for Simpson's products.
Also watch forU.S. housing starts are down from last year. This shows possible problems in the market.
Why it matters: If the sector grows faster again, it could help Simpson and boost its revenue.
Watch forSector growth reported above 10% year over year.
Also watch forSector growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show cash flow problems that hurt growth.
Worry ifCash from operations was below $30 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations was above $30 million.
Why it matters: An operating margin below this level may mean costs are rising or there are problems.
Worry ifOperating margin was less than 19.5%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin was more than 19.5%.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can keep growing despite a tough market. A drop below 6.0% signals trouble.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth below 6.0% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth at or above 6.0% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A 10% rise in operating income shows good cost management. It also helps growth efforts.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income increases by less than 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below this threshold may signal weakening demand in the housing market.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth was below 5% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth was above 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: More cash flow helps with growth plans and increases operating income.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifCash from operations growth is flat or declines year over year.
Why it matters: Housing starts impact demand for Simpson's products. A decline could hurt sales growth.
Worry ifTotal U.S. housing starts decline more than 1% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifTotal U.S. housing starts stabilize or grow year-over-year.
Why it matters: This would show profits are growing slower than sales. This raises worries about efficiency.
Worry ifEPS growth in Q3 2026 falls below 20%.
Less concerning ifEPS growth in Q3 2026 meets or exceeds 20%.
Why it matters: Higher spending could hurt cash flow and future profits. Staying within the range shows discipline.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $90 million.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is between $75 million and $90 million.
Why it matters: The sector is slowing down. If revenue growth picks up, it signals strength for Simpson Manufacturing.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrials sector rises back toward 8% or higher.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 6% for another quarter.
Why it matters: Spending above this amount could show a change in how money is used. This might affect cash flow later.
Worry ifSpending in Q3 2026 is more than $90 million.
Less concerning ifSpending in Q3 2026 stays between $80 million and $90 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $281 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,037 loss on $10,000 · 20.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.