Simpson Manufacturing (SSD)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$198.84-3.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SSD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SSD — credit agreement
Dated 2025-12-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On December 16, 2025, Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (the “Company”) entered into that certain Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement”), among the Company, the subsidiaries of the Company party thereto as guarantors, the lenders party thereto, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association (“Wells Fargo”), as administrative agent, and the other parties party thereto. The Second Amended and Restated Cr…
Why it matters: Management said it plans more price increases in 2027 as steel costs rise and supply tightens. The margin trend will show whether prices cover those costs.
Watch for2027 results show gross margin stable or higher year over year after the new price increases.
Also watch for2027 gross margin falls year over year as steel costs rise, despite the new price increases.
Why it matters: Management aims to grow volume faster than U.S. housing starts. Q3 housing starts fell 1.9%, while global volume was flat.
Watch forNext reported U.S. housing starts fall year over year, while SSD reports higher unit sales volumes year over year.
Also watch forSSD unit sales volumes fall year over year, or grow no faster than U.S. housing starts.
Why it matters: Europe Q3 sales fell 3.4% and operating income fell 5.0%. A recovery would reverse the recent weakness in that segment.
Watch forEurope net sales and operating income both rise year over year in a later quarter.
Also watch forEurope net sales and operating income both fall from a year ago for another quarter.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.30 quarterly dividend, payable January 28, 2027. Payment would confirm this stated capital return; a change would signal a shift.
Supportive ifSSD pays $0.30 per share on January 28, 2027, to holders of record on January 7.
Worry ifSSD announces a lower dividend, cancels the payment, or delays it beyond the stated date.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $281 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,037 loss on $10,000 · 20.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The full-year target is 20.0% to 20.5%, including an $11 million land-sale gain. Results below 20% would miss management's stated goal.
Watch forFull-year 2026 operating margin is at least 20.0%, including the gain from land sales.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 operating margin is below 20.0%, or the land-sale gain does not close the gap.