Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$486.49+5.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STRL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $486 STRL trades at 31× p/e, below its 41× p/e peer median, but our blended $467 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $700–$950. Note: our $467 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($700–$950). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $754.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $248.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $276.18 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $125.79 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$700.00 – $950.00 (median $754.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-08-20
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 302% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $12.78/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $175.09 |
| 14.5 |
| 11.70 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $405.63 | 26.3 | 15.43 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $653.09 | 41.5 | 15.75 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $131.61 | 1.2 | 110.41 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $435.86 | 27.7 | 15.75 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $76.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $710.82 | 41.5 | 17.14 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $616.91 | 26.3 | 23.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $929.37 | 41.5 | 22.41 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $241.15 | 1.2 | 202.30 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $620.25 | 27.7 | 22.41 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $815.86 | 26.3 | 31.04 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1229.09 | 41.5 | 29.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $318.92 | 1.2 | 267.55 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $820.29 | 27.7 | 29.64 | Analyst | medium |