Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$244.34-13.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STRL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 27.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STRL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-08
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 2, 2026, Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”), as borrower, and certain of its subsidiaries, as guarantors (the “Subsidiary Guarantors”), entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of July 2, 2026 (the “Amended Credit Agreement”), with the financial institutions party thereto as lenders (the “Lenders”) and BMO Bank N.A., as administrative agent for the Lenders (the “Agent”), which amends and restates that…
Why it matters: Management says CEC may pass $1 billion in 2026 revenue. That would show the electrical business is scaling.
Supportive ifSterling reports CEC revenue above $1 billion for 2026.
Worry ifSterling reports CEC revenue at or below $1 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 signed backlog book-to-burn was 0.9x, so signed work fell during the quarter. A return above 1.0x would show new awards are outpacing work done.
Supportive ifA later quarter's signed backlog book-to-burn ratio is above 1.0x.
Worry ifA later quarter's signed backlog book-to-burn ratio stays at or below 1.0x.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$297 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $903 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,541 loss on $10,000 · 75.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.