Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$486.49+5.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STRL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STRL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-08
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 2, 2026, Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (the “Company”), as borrower, and certain of its subsidiaries, as guarantors (the “Subsidiary Guarantors”), entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of July 2, 2026 (the “Amended Credit Agreement”), with the financial institutions party thereto as lenders (the “Lenders”) and BMO Bank N.A., as administrative agent for the Lenders (the “Agent”), which amends and restates that…
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change company plans and results. Stability is key.
Watch forNew leadership is announced with a clear strategic vision for growth.
Also watch forLeadership changes lead to uncertainty or lack of clear direction.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change company direction. This can impact performance. It's important to watch.
Watch forNew plans were announced after the CEO's contract was extended.
Also watch forThere are no new plans or strategy changes after the CEO's contract was extended.
Why it matters: Good integration can make services better. It can also increase money from site development.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue from Stone Ridge increased within six months.
Worry ifIntegration issues lead to revenue stagnation or decline from Stone Ridge.
Why it matters: Good integration can make services better. It can also increase revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says CEC will add more revenue in the next quarters.
Worry ifProblems with CEC integration may cause revenue to stay the same or drop.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow shows the company is managing its finances well. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations decreases or stays flat in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping strong margins is important for making money and gaining investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 20% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 18% in Q3.
Why it matters: This acquisition could boost revenue and margins in the E-Infrastructure segment. Investors will look for signs of successful integration and growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue goes up by at least 10% from Q1. This is due to Stone Ridge's help.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is less than 5%. This shows problems with integration or weak results from Stone Ridge.
Why it matters: This acquisition could boost revenue and expand Sterling's market reach. Investors want to see how it contributes to growth.
Supportive ifSterling updates its 2026 financial guidance. This shows how much money Stone Ridge will bring in.
Worry ifSterling keeps its guidance the same. It reports lower contributions from Stone Ridge than expected.
Why it matters: High revenue growth shows strong demand and good execution. It gives investors confidence.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth exceeds 80% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth falls below 70% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows faster, it could help Sterling's revenue. This is important for overall performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 8% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in E-Infrastructure shows demand for important projects. This helps overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifE-Infrastructure revenue growth exceeds 150% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifE-Infrastructure revenue growth falls below 100% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Backlog growth reflects future revenue potential. A slowdown could signal demand issues.
Worry ifBacklog growth in Q3 is reported below 100% year over year.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth in Q3 exceeds 120% year over year.
Why it matters: Cash flow is crucial for funding growth. A decline could affect financial flexibility.
Worry ifCash flow from operations in Q3 is reported above $300 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations in Q3 falls below $250 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$325 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $851 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,410 loss on $10,000 · 54.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.