TFS Financial Corp (TFSL)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.71+1.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TFSL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 80.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -30.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 111.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TFSL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
and in the accompanying exhibit 99.1 shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof. The information in this report, including the exhibit hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Why it matters: The earnings refresh cut the momentum score from 48.6 to 13.3 and changed the overall signal to mixed. Another drop would add to that weakness.
Worry ifA later earnings update drops the company momentum score below 13.3.
Less concerning ifA later earnings update lifts the company momentum score above 48.6.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 1.90% in the June quarter, then fell to 1.88% for fiscal 2026. Another decline would weaken the earnings growth story.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows net interest margin below 1.88%.
Less concerning ifThe next quarterly report shows net interest margin at or above 1.90%.
Why it matters: Loan growth is a stated focus. Home equity loans and lines reached $5.68 billion in fiscal 2026, while mortgage originations and purchases rose year over year.
Supportive ifA later report shows home equity loans and lines above $5.68 billion. Mortgage originations and purchases are above the fiscal 2026 pace.
Worry ifA later report shows home equity loans and lines below $5.68 billion. Or, mortgage originations and purchases are below the fiscal 2025 total of $1.19 billion.
Why it matters: Delinquencies rose from 0.22% a year earlier to 0.27%. Further increases could signal more strain in the loan book.
Worry ifReported loan delinquencies rise above 0.27% of total loans.
Less concerning ifReported loan delinquencies fall to 0.22% or lower, the June 2025 level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$61 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $230 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,365 loss on $10,000 · 13.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Deposits fell by $195 million in the June quarter as the company managed funding costs. Borrowed funds rose by $668.5 million to fund loans and liquidity.
Worry ifIn the next report, deposits drop below $9.99 billion as borrowed funds rise above $5.81 billion.
Less concerning ifDeposits rise above $9.99 billion and borrowed funds fall below $5.81 billion in the next report.