Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$0.41 → $0.40 · observed estimates
TFS Financial Corp (TFSL)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.71+1.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.41 → 0.40 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TFSL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend near $0.2825 per share | The company pays steady dividends near $0.28 per share. | Intact | dividend cut or suspension | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$0.41 → $0.40 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with a growth-and-margin thesis, not a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact: annual net income and net interest margin improved, and mortgage lending expanded, though the latest signal has shifted to mixed.
TFSL is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence suggests expectations are demanding relative to the outlook. Valuation is the main source of fragility; the broader evidence does not show a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions.
Over the multi-year view, continued margin improvement and mortgage and home equity growth could support earnings, as recent annual results show progress on those priorities. Near term, quarterly net income declined from the prior quarter, deposits fell year over year, and interest expense rose, while recent momentum weakened after in-line earnings.
The main negative swing factors are a guidance cut on the next call or rate cuts from the current level, both of which could weigh on the business or sector backdrop. Continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support sector momentum, while TFSL’s own deposit costs and funding mix remain important execution questions.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustaining lending growth and improved margins while managing funding costs, against an expensive valuation and a newly mixed signal. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect EPS around $0.34 for fiscal 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.30 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.34. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase net income to at least $45.5 million | TFS Financial focuses on increasing net income, with a 4.8% rise in six months. | Intact | net income falls below $43.4 million next year | Net income: $30.54M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $45.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202630,540,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.39B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $0.41 | $392,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.41 | $392,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.41 | $392,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.41 | $392,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.41 | $392,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.41 | $392,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.41 | $392,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.41 | $392,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.41 | $389,941,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.40 | $392,076,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.40 | $392,076,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.