TJX
TJX CompaniesNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TJX has a composite score of 16.7, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.4 and reflects strengths in quality (80.9) and macro factors (17.9), while facing challenges in sector performance (12.3) and valuation (33.7). The analysis is provisional, indicating that the scores may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.19
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.21 → $1.16 (-3.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence — fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 2.Plan consolidated comparable sales to be up 2% to 3% in FY27growthon track100% progress
2/25: “The Company is planning consolidated comparable sales to be up 2% to 3% for FY27.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. TJX plans for consolidated comparable sales growth of 2% to 3% for FY27. In FY26, consolidated comparable sales increased by 5%, indicating a strong performance. The trajectory for FY27 is newly stated, with no prior quarters for comparison.
- 3.Maintain pretax profit margin in the range of 11.7% to 11.8% for FY27costmixed65% progress
2/25: “Pretax profit margin to be in the range of 11.7% to 11.8% for FY27.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. TJX aims to maintain a pretax profit margin between 11.7% and 11.8% for FY27. In FY26, the pretax profit margin was 12.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous year, showing a positive trend. The trajectory for FY27 is newly stated, with no prior quarters for comparison.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 20%; 252d 17%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −10%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — -0.00 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 72/100, drawdown 80/100, beta 0/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 11.7% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #2
Plan consolidated comparable sales to be up 2% to 3% in FY27
GrowthTJX plans for consolidated comparable sales growth of 2% to 3% for the full year FY27.
On trackNewly stated in 2026-Q1. TJX plans for consolidated comparable sales growth of 2% to 3% for FY27. In FY26, consolidated comparable sales increased by 5%, indicating a strong performance. The trajectory for FY27 is newly stated, with no prior quarters for comparison.
100%CEO/CFO:“The Company is planning consolidated comparable sales to be up 2% to 3% for FY27.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-25Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-25Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The Company is planning consolidated comparable sales to be up 2% to 3% for FY27.”
- #3
Maintain pretax profit margin in the range of 11.7% to 11.8% for FY27
CostTJX aims to maintain a pretax profit margin between 11.7% and 11.8% for FY27.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. TJX aims to maintain a pretax profit margin between 11.7% and 11.8% for FY27. In FY26, the pretax profit margin was 12.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous year, showing a positive trend. The trajectory for FY27 is newly stated, with no prior quarters for comparison.
65%CEO/CFO:“Pretax profit margin to be in the range of 11.7% to 11.8% for FY27.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-25Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-25Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Pretax profit margin to be in the range of 11.7% to 11.8% for FY27.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TJX TJX Companies | +17 | full | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-25)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-25)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-02-252mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026 , The TJX Companies, Inc. issued a press release that included financial results for the fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information contained in this report, and the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 14 - 2025-11-195mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 19, 2025 , The TJX Companies, Inc. issued a press release that included financial results for the fiscal quarter ended November 1, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information contained in this report, and the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.