TMUS
T-Mobile USNASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecom ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TMUS has a composite score of 32.8 and a signal label of "favorable." The score reflects medium confidence at 74.7, with strengths in valuation (70.0) and quality (62.8), while the sector score is low at 17.0. The analysis is provisional and influenced by macroeconomic factors, including rates and labor conditions.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.00
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.65 → $2.59 (-2.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 11 cut, 17 covering analysts.
3 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.2% above current price.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
18 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase shareholder returnscapital allocationon track77% progress
4/23: “T-Mobile announced an increase to its shareholder return program up to $18.2 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The shareholder return program was increased from $14.6 billion to $18.2 billion, reflecting a $3.6 billion increase. This indicates a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder returns, with the trajectory delivering on the stated priority.
- 2.Grow service revenuesgrowthwatchprovisional
2/11: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
- 3.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/11: “Cash purchases of property and equipment are expected to be approximately $10.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capex is expected to be approximately $10.0 billion, reflecting a $500 million increase from prior guidance. This consistent focus on managing capital expenditures aligns with the company's strategic priorities, though the financials do not yet show significant changes in capex spending.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 33%; 252d 24%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −29%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLC) — 0.23 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 59/100, drawdown 43/100, beta 23/100, earnings vol —.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase shareholder returns
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04T-Mobile aims to enhance shareholder returns through an increased buyback program.
Mixed →On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The shareholder return program was increased from $14.6 billion to $18.2 billion, reflecting a $3.6 billion increase. This indicates a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder returns, with the trajectory delivering on the stated priority.
77%CEO/CFO:“T-Mobile announced an increase to its shareholder return program up to $18.2 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Board authorized an increase to the shareholder return program up to $18.2 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Shareholder returns increased from $14.6 billion to $18.2 billion.”
- #2
Grow service revenues
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Service revenues are expected to be approximately $77.0 billion in 2026 and $80.5–$81.5 billion in 2027.
Behind →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”10-KSource dated 2026-02-11First seen 2026-05-04provisional - #3
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04T-Mobile plans to manage its capital expenditures effectively, maintaining a $10 billion capex target.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capex is expected to be approximately $10.0 billion, reflecting a $500 million increase from prior guidance. This consistent focus on managing capital expenditures aligns with the company's strategic priorities, though the financials do not yet show significant changes in capex spending.
44%CEO/CFO:“Cash purchases of property and equipment are expected to be approximately $10.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-11Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capex expected to be approximately $10.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capex guidance increased by $500 million to $10.0 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TMUS T-Mobile US | +33 | inexpensive | moderate |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | +31 | fair | moderate |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | +32 | fair | moderate |
META Meta Platforms | +30 | inexpensive | elevated |
NFLX Netflix | +23 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If communication_services sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-28)-16 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-5.8 pts
- If communication_services sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.1 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
to this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 , is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 57 - 2026-04-2315d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 23, 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) has authorized an increase to the Company’s shareholder return program (the “2026 Shareholder Return Program”) of up to $3.6 billion, reflecting an increase from up to $14.6 billion of shareholder returns to up to $18.2 billion. As previously announced, the 2026 Shareholder Return Program will run through December 31, 2026. Utilization of the authoriz…
capital allocationpositivescore 37 - 2026-03-311mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 31, 2026, following the previous repayment of certain legacy indebtedness, T-Mobile USA, Inc. (“ TMUSA ”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of T-Mobile US, Inc. (“ TMUS ”), elected to release the guarantees of certain subsidiaries under its $10 billion revolving credit agreement pursuant to the terms thereof, resulting in a corresponding release under the indentures dated April 28, 2013, April 9, 2020 and September 15, 2022, governing its outstanding senior notes. As a result,…
capital allocationneutralscore 22 - 2026-03-271mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 26, 2026, Abdurazak Mudesir notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of T-Mobile US, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign from the Board and from the Nominating, Corporate Governance and Compliance Committee of the Board, effective March 31, 2026. Mr. Mudesir’s resignation is not the result of any disagreement between the Co…
executive changeneutralscore 21 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.02
to this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 , is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.