Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.60-9.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TNXP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -82.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
TNXP — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-02
Other Events. On October 1, 2026, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (the “Company”) received a notice (the “Notice”) from Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Inc. (collectively, “DRL”) stating that DRL filed an Abbreviated New Drug Application (“ANDA”) containing a Paragraph IV patent certification with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) for a generic version of the Company’s drug, TONMYA® (cyclobenzaprine hydrochloride) sublingual tablets, 2.8 mg. The Not…
Why it matters: Dr. Reddy filed a patent challenge for a generic TONMYA version. A court outcome can affect the drug's stated U.S. market protection through 2034.
Worry ifA court ruling favors Dr. Reddy, or Tonix reports a settlement or license that lets the generic reach the market before 2034.
Less concerning ifA court ruling favors Tonix, or a court filing shows the generic challenge was withdrawn or dismissed.
Why it matters: Refills rose 207% in Q2, while total prescriptions included bridge fills that do not earn revenue right away. More refills can show that patients stay on treatment.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report shows refills above Q2's 12,592 total prescriptions. It reports refill growth apart from bridge fills.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows flat or lower refills, or total prescription growth comes only from bridge fills.
Why it matters: Tonix said its cash should fund planned spending into early Q2 2027. Its Q3 cash estimate was $162.8 million, so the Nov. 9 report can test that runway.
Worry ifThe Nov. 9 report keeps cash near or above $162.8 million and affirms funding into early Q2 2027.
Less concerning ifCash falls well below $162.8 million, or Tonix says its funds no longer cover planned spending into early Q2 2027.
Why it matters: Tonix reported a preliminary Q3 range of $14 million to $15 million. The Nov. 9 earnings report can show whether sales stayed in that range.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 9 report shows Q3 TONMYA revenue of at least $14 million.
Worry ifThe Nov. 9 report shows Q3 TONMYA revenue below $14 million, or the company revises its preliminary range lower.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$271 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $813 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,687 loss on $10,000 · 76.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Lyme study still needs final FDA review and an agreed plan. Starting on time would keep the program near its stated schedule.
Supportive ifTonix reports that the Phase 2 field study began enrollment in Q1 2027 under the agreed plan.
Worry ifTonix reports final FDA review or protocol talks delayed the study past Q1 2027.