Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.14-1.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TNXP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TNXP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-18
CEO — Dr. Seth Lederman: The CEO is assuming an additional interim role (CMO) while continuing in his existing positions, which is a role expansion rather than a departure.
Why it matters: Starting this study is important for Tonix's plan. It focuses on Lyme disease prevention.
Supportive ifThe Phase 2 adaptive field study for TNX-4800 begins as planned in early 2027.
Worry ifThe start of the Phase 2 study is postponed or canceled.
Why it matters: Court cases could change the agreement for TONMYA. This may affect millions and revenue.
Worry ifA court decision that harms the GPO agreement for TONMYA.
Less concerning ifA favorable court ruling that strengthens the GPO agreement for TONMYA.
Why it matters: Expanding Medicaid for TONMYA could help more patients and increase revenue.
Supportive ifNew states or more people may join TONMYA Medicaid coverage.
Worry ifNo new states or people for TONMYA Medicaid coverage.
Why it matters: Enrollment progress in this study is important for Tonix's growth. It helps in treating major depressive disorder.
Supportive ifEnrollment of at least 360 patients in the HORIZON study begins as planned in mid-2026.
Worry ifEnrollment does not start by mid-2026 or is significantly delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$351 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $739 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,953 loss on $10,000 · 69.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New Medicare coverage will help more patients get prescriptions.
Supportive ifThe Medicare coverage deal starts on January 1, 2027.
Worry ifThe Medicare coverage deal is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Sustained sales growth will show that the product is gaining traction in the market.
Supportive ifTONMYA net sales rise more than 150% from last quarter.
Worry ifTONMYA net sales growth is below 100% from last quarter.
Why it matters: Enrollment indicates progress in developing TNX-102 SL for Major Depressive Disorder. This could show the drug's potential in a new market.
Supportive ifThe HORIZON study has enrolled 360 patients as planned.
Worry ifEnrollment falls short of expectations, with fewer than 180 patients enrolled by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: More salespeople can help reach more patients and increase access to TONMYA.
Supportive ifThe sales team for TONMYA will grow to about 150 reps by mid-2026.
Worry ifThe sales force expansion is delayed or does not reach the expected number.
Why it matters: The outcome will help guide the Phase 2 study for Lyme disease prevention. Good feedback could speed up development.
Supportive ifFDA provides guidance that supports the proposed study design for TNX-4800.
Worry ifThe FDA has major concerns that may delay or change the study's design.