Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.60-9.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TNXP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance TNX-1500 clinical trials for organ transplant rejection | The company is advancing clinical trials for TNX-4800 and TNX-1500. | Intact | No positive clinical updates or trial progress in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth story, not a proven durable compounder, because the company is loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. The thesis is on watch: management has made progress on stated priorities, but the overall signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence describes TNXP as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The snapshot does not specify what operating expectations the market has already priced in, so the expectations gap is unclear.
Near term, expanded TONMYA coverage and progress toward clinical milestones provide evidence of execution, while the recent earnings beat is a positive event. The broader financial picture remains weak, management is rated volatile, and the next report carries elevated miss risk; litigation filings also add a near-term concern.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on whether broader TONMYA coverage supports meaningful business progress and whether clinical programs continue advancing on schedule. Near-term sector support could persist if healthcare bellwethers keep reporting strong results, but weakening employment data or weaker bellweller results could reduce that tailwind.
TNXP’s 1-to-3-year view is uncertain: access expansion and clinical progress are constructive, but losses, weak recent performance, and high risk keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is advancing clinical trials for TNX-4800 and TNX-1500. |
| Improving |
| Adaptive Phase 2 study initiation delayed beyond H1 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand TONMYA coverage under Medicaid to 75 million beneficiaries | Tonix is expanding TONMYA coverage under Medicaid to 75 million beneficiaries. | Improving | TONMYA coverage falls below 70 million Medicaid beneficiaries next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-6.54 → $-6.41 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-7.80 | $78,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-7.88 | $107,934,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-6.54 | $78,934,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-6.49 | $116,138,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-7.29 | $110,685,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-7.29 | $110,685,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-7.29 | $110,685,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-7.29 | $110,685,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-7.29 | $110,685,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-7.29 | $110,685,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-6.84 | $110,888,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-6.41 | $111,131,000 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.