Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.26+6.61%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.11 → 1.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TRTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities around $24.57 million | Cash flow from operations remains around $24.57 million, supporting financial stability. | Intact | cash from operating activities falls below $24 million | Cash from operations: $14.393M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $24 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 26, 202614,393,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TRTX is a commercial real estate lending investment with growth and income features, rather than a clear compounder or turnaround. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management has grown earning assets and repurchased shares, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is tagged as stretched, even though the value factor is rated cheap; valuation has also fallen sharply in the recent change data. Expectations are broadly aligned with the model, with a modest gap, and the evidence does not show concentrated fragility.
Near term, the earnings setup is weak: TRTX recently missed, and the estimated risk of another quarterly miss is elevated. Management has delivered on loan growth and share repurchases, but latest-quarter distributable earnings covered only part of the common dividend, making dividend coverage an important multi-year concern.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether loan originations and earning-asset growth continue without further pressure on earnings or dividend coverage. Near term, Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while guidance reductions or cracks among sector peers could remove that support.
TRTX combines demonstrated asset growth and share repurchases with elevated near-term earnings risk and weakening dividend coverage. The 1-to-3-year view remains watchful, with execution and dividend coverage as the main tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend of $0.24 per share |
| TPG RE Finance Trust keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.24 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.24 |
Dividend per share: $0.24 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.24 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 26, 20260.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS guidance at $0.19 per share for 2026 | Earnings per share guidance is stable at $0.19 for 2026. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.19 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.15 → $1.11 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.15 | $117,280,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.15 | $117,280,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.15 | $117,280,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.14 | $159,538,595 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.15 | $117,280,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.14 | $159,538,595 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.15 | $117,280,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.15 | $117,850,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.14 | $158,688,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.12 | $115,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.12 | $115,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.12 | $115,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.14 | $158,688,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.12 | $115,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.12 | $115,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.11 | $114,200,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.13 | $156,063,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.12 | $155,013,820 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.11 | $150,051,760 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.11 | $151,210,304 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.11 | $152,722,271 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.11 | $153,439,267 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.11 | $153,439,267 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.11 | $153,439,267 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.11 | $153,439,267 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.11 | $153,439,267 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.11 | $153,439,267 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.11 | $153,439,267 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.