TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.89+0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -39.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
TRTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inco…
Why it matters: This loan could enhance TRTX's financial flexibility and support new investments. It is key for future growth.
Supportive ifTRTX uses funds to support new loans or investments. This shows good use of money.
Worry ifFunds are not used well or cause more debt. This shows poor management.
Why it matters: A reduction in office loan exposure below 5% shows TRTX's shift towards more stable asset classes. This could improve risk profile.
Supportive ifOffice loan exposure is below 5%. This confirms a change in strategy.
Worry ifOffice loan exposure is above 5%. This shows ongoing risk in that area.
Why it matters: Stable EPS guidance shows predictability. This helps investors trust the earnings.
Supportive ifEPS guidance stays at $0.19 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifEPS guidance drops below $0.19 per share for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Liquidity is important for funding operations and investments. A drop may mean financial stress.
Worry ifTotal liquidity stays above $400 million. This shows strong financial health.
Less concerning ifTotal liquidity is now under $400 million. This may mean funding issues ahead.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $221 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,590 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable EPS guidance shows steady earnings. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifTRTX confirms EPS guidance of $0.19 for 2026 remains unchanged.
Worry ifTRTX lowers EPS guidance. This shows possible earnings weakness.
Why it matters: An increase could signal rising credit risk in the loan portfolio and impact future earnings.
Worry ifThe credit loss allowance is more than $80.7 million.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses remains at or below $80.7 million.
Why it matters: Not using these facilities shows good cash management. It also lowers financial risk.
Supportive ifBoth the Term Loan B and Revolver remain undrawn at the end of Q3.
Worry ifEither the Term Loan B or Revolver is drawn down in Q3.
Why it matters: The dividend is a key indicator of financial health. A stable dividend shows strong earnings and cash flow.
Supportive ifTRTX declares and pays a $0.24 dividend for the next quarter, continuing its trend.
Worry ifTRTX cuts or stops the $0.24 dividend. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: More credit losses may show higher risk in loans. This can hurt overall performance.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses increases by more than $5 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifThe allowance for credit losses goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health. A cut could hurt investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe company declares and pays the dividend of $0.24 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.24 per share.
Why it matters: New loan commitments drive future earnings. More than $466 million indicates growth potential.
Supportive ifNew loan commitments exceed $466 million in Q3.
Worry ifNew loan commitments fall below $466 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable EPS guidance is key for maintaining dividends and investor confidence. A miss could raise concerns.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows EPS of $0.19 or better.
Less concerning ifEPS is below $0.19. This shows possible instability.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.24 dividend is key for trust. Good coverage by earnings is a good sign.
Supportive ifDistributable earnings cover the dividend by at least 1.0x in the next quarter.
Worry ifEarnings available are less than the dividend amount.
Why it matters: More cash flow helps keep dividends and allows for investments. It shows good operations.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $24.6 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $24.6 million. This signals possible problems.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show weaker asset values. This could lower shareholder trust.
Worry ifBook value per share reported below $10.95.
Less concerning ifBook value per share remains at or above $10.95.
Why it matters: Improving sector performance could support TPG RE Finance Trust's growth and valuation.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth speeds up again toward its highs.
Worry ifReal estate sector revenue growth keeps slowing down.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may show problems in paying the dividend.
Worry ifQ3 distributable earnings were below $0.23 per share.
Less concerning ifQ3 distributable earnings were at or above $0.23 per share.
Why it matters: A lower dividend may show cash flow problems. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a cash dividend below $0.24 per share.
Less concerning ifAnnouncement of a cash dividend at $0.24 per share or higher.
Why it matters: Higher repayments show good portfolio performance and strong cash flow.
Supportive ifQ3 loan repayments were above $274 million.
Worry ifQ3 loan repayments were below $274 million.