TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.26+6.61%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -44.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-26
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inco…
Why it matters: TRTX closed its FL8 CLO on October 2 and placed about $820 million in investment-grade securities. The next report can show how this funding affects cash and borrowing costs.
Watch forThe next report shows higher liquidity than Q3's $291.6 million, with no rise in the weighted average cost of funds.
Also watch forThe next report shows lower liquidity than $291.6 million, or a higher weighted average cost of funds.
Why it matters: The allowance fell by $4.5 million, while TRTX also took a multifamily property through foreclosure. More losses could weigh on earnings and book value.
Worry ifThe next report shows a loan loss allowance above $76.1 million, or a new foreclosure or realized loan loss.
Less concerning ifThe allowance stays at or below $76.1 million, with no new foreclosure or realized loan loss.
Why it matters: TRTX reported $772.7 million of new loan commitments and $600 million of net earning asset growth. Another strong quarter would show that growth continues.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly report shows at least $700 million in new loan commitments and positive net earning asset growth.
Worry ifThe next report shows less than $500 million in new loan commitments or a decline in net earning assets.
Why it matters: TRTX repurchased about 1.2 million shares in Q3 and approved a larger program. Repurchases can lift book value per share, but use of the new program will show whether this continues.
Watch forA filing or quarterly report shows at least $10 million in shares bought back under the new $50 million program.
Also watch forThe next quarterly report shows no shares bought back under the new program, or the company pauses buybacks.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,751 loss on $10,000 · 37.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.