Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.91+3.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TVRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -80.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -30.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TVRD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by us, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation languag…
Why it matters: IND clearance is key for moving TTI-109 into clinical trials. It will set the timeline for development and market entry.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of IND clearance for TTI-109 in ulcerative colitis by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelay or denial of IND clearance for TTI-109 will slow its clinical development.
Why it matters: These results will show how well TTI-101 works for liver cancer. Good data may boost investor trust.
Supportive ifThe Phase 1b/2 REVERT LIVER CANCER trial shows important activity.
Worry ifThe results show no big benefits or safety problems that would slow down development.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it may help Tvardi's performance. This could indicate a better environment for growth.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth continues to slow below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Advancing TTI-109 into Phase 2 trials depends on securing additional funding. This will impact the company's growth strategy.
Watch forAnnouncement of successful funding or partnerships to support TTI-109's Phase 2 trials.
Also watch forNo funding secured, leading to delays in advancing TTI-109 into Phase 2 trials.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$262 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $752 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,651 loss on $10,000 · 96.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The results will show how well TTI-101 works for liver cancer. This will affect funding.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 1b/2 trial shows better patient outcomes.
Worry ifData shows no real improvement or bad results from the Phase 1b/2 trial.
Why it matters: These results help us see how well TTI-101 works for liver cancer. They may change future funding and development plans.
Supportive ifTopline data from the TTI-101 Phase 1b/2 trial in HCC will show positive results in late 2026.
Worry ifTopline data shows disappointing results or lack of efficacy for TTI-101 in the Phase 2 trial.
Why it matters: The webinar may show how TTI-109 works and its market plan. This could change how investors feel about the drug's future.
Supportive ifPositive feedback or new data will be shared during the KOL webinar on August 19, 2026.
Worry ifNegative feedback or lack of new data during the webinar.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show if the company can fund operations and trials. This is important for investor confidence.
Worry ifIt is confirmed that cash runway is enough to support operations until Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifNews of cash runway issues or the need for more funding before Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings misses can signal deeper financial issues. They may affect investor trust and stock performance.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows a loss larger than previous quarters.
Less concerning ifThe next earnings report shows a profit or smaller loss than expected.
Why it matters: These results will guide the next steps for TTI-109's development. Positive data could support advancing to Phase 2 trials.
Supportive ifThe Phase 1 study shows big drops in STAT3-driven immune cell numbers.
Worry ifThe data shows no major effects on drug action or safety.