Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.86+0.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TVRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -30.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
TVRD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by us, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation languag…
Why it matters: Cash fell to $15.8 million at June 30. The company says it can fund planned work through the HCC readout into Q3 2027.
Worry ifA future report says cash will not cover planned operations through the HCC readout into Q3 2027. Or it reports a need to raise funds sooner.
Less concerning ifA future report confirms cash can fund planned work through the HCC readout into Q3 2027, with no earlier financing need.
Why it matters: Both are needed to start the planned UC trial in 2027. A delay would slow TTI-109's next step.
Watch forTvardi reports new funding and IND clearance, then names a start date for its TTI-109 UC trial in 2027.
Also watch forTvardi reports no added funding or IND clearance, or says the UC trial start has moved past 2027.
Why it matters: This readout tests TTI-101 in liver cancer. Clear signs of benefit would support the program.
Watch forThe Q4 2026 data report shows tumor response or disease control in the Phase 1b/2 HCC trial.
Also watch forThe report shows no tumor response or disease control, or the topline readout slips beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Healthy volunteers had fewer side effects and changes in immune cells. A UC trial will test if these results also occur in patients.
Watch forThe first TTI-109 UC trial report shows tolerable dosing and lower STAT3-linked immune cell counts.
Also watch forThe report shows serious dose limits, no drop in STAT3-linked immune cell counts, or a trial delay past 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$278 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $765 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,414 loss on $10,000 · 84.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.