Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.86+0.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TVRD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash runway through Q4 2026 | The company aims to maintain cash through Q4 2026 to fund trials. | Intact | Cash runway falls short of funding operations through Q4 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage healthcare business, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: key trial plans are progressing, while recent performance and earnings quality remain weak.
The evidence describes TVRD as cheap versus peers, with a low-confidence valuation model and a justified priced-in assessment. That suggests some weakness is recognized, but the evidence does not show that clinical or funding risks are fully reflected in expectations.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss leave execution uncertain. Over the multi-year view, TTI-101 topline data are planned for the second half of 2026, while TTI-109 development is progressing; cash fell from $30.8 million at 2025-Q4 to $15.8 million at 2026-Q2 as the company continued to incur operating losses.
A key swing factor is whether TTI-101 reports topline results on the planned timeline and whether those results support further development. TTI-109’s planned ulcerative colitis trial depends on regulatory clearance and additional funding, while cash runway and any guidance cut also matter. A weakening jobs trend could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1-3 years, TVRD remains a high-risk clinical development story with meaningful trial and funding milestones, but fragile earnings quality and near-term execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows or stabilizes relative to consensus by FY27. |
| Broken |
| EPS loss worsens beyond consensus estimates through FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Phase 2 REVERTLIVER cancer trial results in 1H 2026 | Phase 2 trial results expected in first half of 2026 could validate the drug. | Intact | Phase 2 trial results delayed beyond 1H 2026 or negative outcomes reported | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.54 → $-2.18 · observed estimates
Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.73 | $0 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.73 | $0 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.73 | $0 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 5 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.73 | $0 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.73 | $0 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.73 | $0 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.73 | $0 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.09 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.15 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.06 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 6 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.03 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.18 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.18 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.18 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.18 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.18 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-2.18 | Unavailable | 7 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.