TWFG INC (TWFG)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.89-1.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TWFG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 25× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $31 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $21–$34. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $26.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $56.81 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $65.57 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $22.63 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$21.00 – $34.00 (median $26.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $27.01 |
| 1.3 |
| 20.15 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $38.01 | 11.1 | 3.44 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $12.78 | 11.1 | 1.15 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $64.76 | 2.9 | 22.50 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $3.85 | 3.4 | 1.13 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $18.07 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $28.58 | 25.3 | 1.13 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $15.24 | 12.4 | 1.23 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $14.14 | 11.1 | 1.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $86.35 | 2.9 | 30.01 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $4.07 | 3.4 | 1.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $30.18 | 25.3 | 1.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $15.64 | 11.1 | 1.41 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $95.52 | 2.9 | 33.19 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $4.22 | 3.4 | 1.24 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $31.29 | 25.3 | 1.24 | Analyst | high |