TWFG INC (TWFG)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$28.96-2.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TWFG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TWFG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-13
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On August 12, 2026, TWFG, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), with TWFG Holding Company, LLC, as borrower (the “Borrower”), PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, swingline loan lender and issuing lender, the other guarantors party thereto, and the lenders party thereto, which amended and restated the Company’s existing credit agreement dated as of May 23, 2023, as am…
Why it matters: TWFG says it plans to invest in technology, data, and AI tools. Clear plans and measures can show how those efforts may help agents and growth.
Supportive ifAt the November 12 Investor Day, TWFG names specific tech or AI projects. It reports agent use or productivity measures.
Worry ifThe Investor Day gives no specific tech or AI plans. Or it reports delays in those efforts.
Why it matters: Q2 net income rose to $17.3 million, while cash from operations was $9.8 million. A wider gap may matter as TWFG funds growth and acquisitions.
Worry ifQ3 cash flow from operations is below half of net income, as it was in Q2, or falls below $8 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash flow from operations is at least equal to net income and exceeds $15 million.
Why it matters: Margins rose to 30.4% in Q2 as higher-commission MGA business grew. A lower Q3 margin could point to weaker mix or higher costs.
Watch forQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 23%, the low end of the updated 2026 range.
Also watch forQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 22%, under the prior guide's low end.
Why it matters: Q2 growth was 37%, helped by Florida takeout renewals. Q3 results can show whether growth holds without that large lift.
Watch forQ3 organic revenue growth is at or above 13%, the low end of the 2026 guide.
Also watch forQ3 organic revenue growth falls below 10%, near the Q1 rate and below the full-year guide.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $507 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,166 loss on $10,000 · 41.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.