Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT (UNB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.75-1.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.20 → 3.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UNB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share | Union Bankshares keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.36 per share. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $0.36 per share | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend Declared The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.36 per share for the quarter payable November 5, 2026 to shareholders of record as of October 31, 2026.” “Dividend Declared The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.36 per share for the quarter payable August 6, 2026 to shareholders of record as of July 27, 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UNB is a small-cap financial company with a value-oriented profile, rather than a clear durable-growth story. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: the latest quarter showed higher net income, but performance remains below its industry cohort and execution evidence is limited.
The valuation evidence labels UNB cheap, while the model shows it trading at a premium to peers and expectations below the model’s view. The priced-in assessment says that setup is justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a simple undervaluation case.
Near term, earnings-miss risk is elevated: the snapshot flags a run of consecutive misses and a 47% miss probability. Net income rose to $3.8 million in the September 2026 quarter from $3.4 million a year earlier, and the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share; the evidence does not establish a longer record for either trend.
The next earnings call is a key near-term test, since a guidance cut is flagged as a meaningful negative. Rate changes are another swing factor, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum; leadership-transition execution remains unquantified.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on whether recent earnings growth becomes more consistent and execution improves, while the next print and interest-rate backdrop remain important risks. Evidence confidence is low, so the current read is watchful rather than settled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain net income growth | Net income shows growth with $3.0 million in Q1 2026 and $11.1 million in 2025. | Intact | annual net income falls below $11 million | Net income: $2.924M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $11 million annually. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20262,924,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consolidated net income for the three months ended September 30, 2026 was $3.8 million, or $0.77 per share, compared to $3.4 million, or $0.75 per share, for the same period in 2025, and $9.7 million, or $2.03 per share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, compared to $8.3 million, or $1.83 per share, for the same period in 2025.” “Interest expense increased $168 thousand, or 2.2%, to $8.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2026 compared to $8.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025 These changes resulted in improvement in net interest income of $988 thousand, or 10.0%, for the comparison periods.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue growth near 13% next year | Analysts expect 13% revenue growth next year. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 10% YoY | Revenue growth: 7.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 13% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 20267.136371 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consolidated net income for the three months ended September 30, 2026 was $3.8 million, or $0.77 per share, compared to $3.4 million, or $0.75 per share, for the same period in 2025, and $9.7 million, or $2.03 per share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, compared to $8.3 million, or $1.83 per share, for the same period in 2025.” “Interest expense increased $168 thousand, or 2.2%, to $8.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2026 compared to $8.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025 These changes resulted in improvement in net interest income of $988 thousand, or 10.0%, for the comparison periods.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain valuation below peer median P/E | A supporting condition in Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT's published investment case. The stated target is P/E <= 11.98. | Intact | P/E rises above 12 | P/E (TTM): 8.58x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20268.5779 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.20 → $3.20 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.20 | $113,566,777 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.