USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.42-9.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers
USAR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial
Dated 2026-09-04
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. In connection with the closing of the Merger, Merger Sub assumed on the Closing Date all of the rights and obligations of SVRE under a Finance Agreement, dated as of January 21, 2026 (as amended, the “ Finance Agreement ”), pursuant to which DFC agreed to provide a loan to SVRE in an aggregate principal amount not to exceed $565,000,000, consisting of (i) a first tranche (the “ I…
Why it matters: The facility is meant to fund rare earth purchases under the offtake deal. A funded facility would support the deal's ability to operate as planned.
Supportive ifThe SPV documents and closes the full $500 million senior debt facility, then receives the funds.
Worry ifThe facility fails to close or fund, or the SPV cannot meet its purchase obligations under the offtake deal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$346 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $943 loss on $10,000 · 9.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,583 loss on $10,000 · 75.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.