USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.61-0.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
USAR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial
Dated 2026-09-04
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. In connection with the closing of the Merger, Merger Sub assumed on the Closing Date all of the rights and obligations of SVRE under a Finance Agreement, dated as of January 21, 2026 (as amended, the “ Finance Agreement ”), pursuant to which DFC agreed to provide a loan to SVRE in an aggregate principal amount not to exceed $565,000,000, consisting of (i) a first tranche (the “ I…
Why it matters: Acquisition plans may show that USAR is growing and expanding.
Supportive ifA press release with details on specific targets or agreements.
Worry ifNo news about acquisitions or delays in plans to acquire.
Why it matters: Securing government funding is key for USAR's growth and financial stability. It shows strong support for their projects.
Supportive ifThe government will announce funding deals worth over $1 billion.
Worry ifNo new government funding agreements announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The Round Top project is key to USAR's growth. Progress shows operational ability.
Supportive ifManagement shares updates on big progress in the Round Top project.
Worry ifDelays or setbacks in the Round Top project development are reported.
Why it matters: Funding depends on project milestones. Successful payments support the company's growth and lower risk.
Supportive ifThe company receives disbursements from the U.S. Department of Commerce as milestones are met.
Worry ifPayments are late or denied because milestones are not met.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$413 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $998 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,923 loss on $10,000 · 69.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition will secure USA Rare Earth's position as a key player in the rare earth market.
Supportive ifThe merger will close after the stockholder meeting on August 28, 2026.
Worry ifThe merger does not close due to unmet conditions or stockholder disapproval.
Why it matters: Completion of the merger is crucial for USAR's growth and access to resources. Delays could hurt operations and stock price.
Worry ifThe merger is done. All conditions are met on time.
Less concerning ifThe merger is late or not done. This causes problems for operations.
Why it matters: More capacity is key for making magnets and growing.
Supportive ifLCM reaches 3,000 metric tons per annum capacity by Q4 2026.
Worry ifCapacity remains below 3,000 metric tons per annum by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: More production capacity is key for USAR's magnet making. It shows growth potential.
Supportive ifThey will announce reaching 3,000 MTPA metal and alloy capacity by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo updates on capacity build-out progress by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: This study will show if the project can make money and how much cash it can bring.
Supportive ifThe study is completed and published by Q1 2027 as planned.
Worry ifThe study is delayed beyond Q1 2027 or fails to meet key project economics.
Why it matters: Acquisition plans can signal growth and expansion. They may improve USAR's market position.
Supportive ifA big acquisition or partnership will be announced soon.
Worry ifNo new acquisition announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Successful production will prove USA Rare Earth's ability to process and help its supply chain.
Supportive ifThe company says it has made heavy rare earth oxides at the facility.
Worry ifProduction does not meet early goals or schedules, showing there are problems.
Why it matters: Announcing acquisitions can show growth. No news may mean problems.
Supportive ifA press release about a big acquisition that boosts production.
Worry ifNo news on acquisitions or partnerships by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: This facility will greatly boost USAR's production and create jobs. It is important for growth.
Supportive ifConstruction starts on the Blacksburg facility. It is on track to open by 2028.
Worry ifConstruction is delayed or fails to meet the timeline for commissioning.
Why it matters: This funding is important for USA Rare Earth to grow and improve operations.
Supportive ifThe company announces receipt of the first tranche of funding under the CHIPS Act.
Worry ifFunding is delayed or cut because project goals were not met.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for USAR's money health and investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by at least 10% from the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Disbursements from the $1.6 billion funding are crucial for project execution. Delays could hinder growth.
Watch forUSAR gets the first funding as it meets project goals in the agreements.
Also watch forFunding is delayed if project goals are not met or other conditions arise.