Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.42-9.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for USAR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Announce and complete acquisitions to expand assets | The company plans to expand with new acquisitions and facilities. | Intact | No acquisition plans announced or progressed by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth and execution story in a sector with a stated tailwind. The thesis is in a watch state, and confidence has fallen from medium to low as recent performance remains weak.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or a clear account of what the market already assumes, so whether USAR is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. Fragility signals are low, but that does not resolve the valuation question.
Near term, results may remain uneven: USAR missed its most recent quarter and has had erratic earnings surprises, although the stated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, management is focused on integrating Serra Verde, expanding manufacturing capacity, and executing milestone-linked U.S. government funding agreements; capacity expansion remains a watch item.
The multi-year thesis depends on successful integration of Serra Verde and execution of planned capacity growth, supported by progress on government funding milestones. Near term, another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weaker results from those companies could remove that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, USAR’s strategic assets and sector backdrop provide a potential foundation, but weak financial performance, volatile management execution, and high risk leave the thesis uncertain. The evidence supports close attention to integration, capacity progress, and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Capex of at least $800 million by end of 2028. |
| Intact |
| Capex falls below $800 million by 2028 |
Capital expenditures: $69.747M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex of at least $800 million by end of 2028. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202669,747,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Secure and unlock government funding agreements | government funding. | Under Pressure | Funding agreements fail to unlock or are delayed beyond 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operating income from current losses | A primary condition in USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating income improves toward break-even or positive by FY27. | Broken | Operating income remains below -$30 million beyond FY26 | Operating income: $-46.314M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward break-even or positive by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026-46,314,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.21 → $-0.07 · observed estimates
$0.55B → $0.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.03 | $676,729,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.03 | $676,729,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.03 | $676,729,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.03 | $676,729,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.03 | $676,729,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.03 | $676,729,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.21 | $549,475,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.12 | $521,597,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.12 | $521,597,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.12 | $521,597,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.09 | $588,310,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.09 | $588,310,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.09 | $588,310,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.09 | $588,310,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.09 | $588,310,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.09 | $588,310,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.09 | $588,314,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.09 | $588,314,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.09 | $588,314,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.09 | $588,314,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.09 | $588,314,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.05 | $632,840,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.05 | $632,840,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.07 | $635,758,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.07 | $622,321,429 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.