Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
US Gold Corp. (USAU)
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.58-6.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for USAU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
successful capital raising to fund operations | Despite losses, the private placement provides capital to support operations. | Intact | failure to secure necessary funding by mid-2027 | Qualitative: $31.2M raised (1.9M shares @ $16.25) vs FY27 opex target Dec 2025 private placement of 1,922,159 shares at $16.25/share raised ~$31.2M, securing necessary capital. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative project-development story, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has advanced project planning and permitting, but the company remains loss-making and recent performance is weak.
The valuation model shows USAU at a premium to peers, with a substantial expectations gap driven by re-rating, or a change in how the market values the company. The evidence tags what is priced in as unjustified, while confidence in the overall evidence is low; it does not establish that the premium is supported by current results.
Near term, a run of earnings misses and an elevated risk of another miss leave performance vulnerable. Over the multi-year view, the feasibility study and required construction permits support project readiness, while financing and construction progress remain key steps; management's stated priorities are being watched. Sector strength may help sentiment, but weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical Materials names.
The favorable scenario depends on Materials bellwethers continuing to report strong results and raise guidance, sustaining a sector tailwind. The unfavorable scenarios include those bellwethers missing or guiding lower, or further labor-market weakness increasing recession fears. For the company-specific thesis, the central swing factor is whether management can secure financing and advance the permitted CK Gold Project toward construction and production.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, USAU remains a high-risk, loss-making project story with a credible permitted-project plan but no demonstrated operating earnings. The thesis hinges on financing and execution, against weak recent results and uncertain sector support. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in US Gold Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is reduce EPS loss to less than -$0.50 by FY27. |
| Intact |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.83 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.28 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: reduce EPS loss to less than -$0.50 by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 11, 2026-0.28 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
progress on Venezuela mining project | is advancing its Venezuela project with a mining veteran, showing strategic growth. | Improving | no meaningful project progress or delays beyond 2026 | Qualitative progress (hiring veteran) vs 2026 milestone target Company hired mining veteran Warke for the Venezuela project in May/June 2026, reinforcing strategic growth. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.00 → $-0.92 · observed estimates
$0.29B → $0.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Unavailable | $0 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Unavailable | $0 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Unavailable | $0 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unavailable | $0 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Unavailable | $0 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | $0 | — / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.00 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.92 | $286,823,000 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.