US Gold Corp. (USAU)
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.15-1.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USAU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 74.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -27.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 101.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
USAU — private placement
Dated 2025-12-23
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 23, 2025, U.S. Gold Corp. (the “Company”) entered into a series of securities purchase agreements (the “Purchase Agreements”) with certain investors (the “Purchasers”), for the sale and issuance in a non-brokered private placement of an aggregate of 1,922,159 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share, at a purchase price of $16.25 per share. In addition, the Company agreed to issue to the Purchasers, unregistered c…
Why it matters: Staying compliant with regulations is key for the project. Problems could delay building and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifAll required permits are valid. No new regulatory problems have been reported.
Less concerning ifLook for news about rule problems or delays in permits.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the materials sector could signal a recovery. This would help US Gold Corp. as it operates in the same sector.
Supportive ifMaterials sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1% for three years.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the materials sector is still negative or getting worse.
Why it matters: Staying compliant is key for the project. Problems could slow down construction.
Worry ifRegulatory compliance is confirmed. All permits are in place for CK Gold.
Less concerning ifThere are reports of regulatory issues. These could delay the project timeline.
Why it matters: Starting construction confirms management's goal to advance the CK Gold Project. This would signal strong project momentum and potential future cash flow.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of construction start for the CK Gold Project within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo announcement of construction start by the end of Q4 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$215 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $636 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,403 loss on $10,000 · 44.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A change in money use could mean a better focus on growth and investment.
Supportive ifManagement shares a new investment plan or strategy for growth.
Worry ifManagement is not friendly to money. They have no new plans.
Why it matters: Securing financing is key to starting construction. It shows investor confidence in the project.
Supportive ifFinancing for the CK Gold Project is secured. The total is at least $394 million.
Worry ifNo financing secured by the end of Q4 2026, delaying construction plans.
Why it matters: Changes in gold, copper, and silver prices can greatly impact project profits.
Watch forGold prices rise above $4,500/oz, copper above $5.50/lb, and silver above $70/oz.
Also watch forGold prices fall below $3,250/oz, copper below $4.50/lb, and silver below $40/oz.
Why it matters: Plans for resource expansion could extend the mine life and increase value. It's a sign of growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement shares plans and timelines for resource growth at CK Gold.
Worry ifNo updates or plans for resource expansion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Staying compliant is important for project progress and to avoid delays.
Worry ifManagement says they are still following all the rules.
Less concerning ifReports of regulatory issues or non-compliance by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well US Gold Corp. is doing financially.
Watch forThe earnings report shows more revenue or fewer losses than in past quarters.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses or worse financial numbers.
Why it matters: Plans for resource expansion could extend the mine life and increase future revenues.
Supportive ifManagement shares new estimates or drilling results. These show that resources are growing.
Worry ifNo updates on resource expansion or drilling results by Q1 2027.