Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.63-3.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.32 → 0.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UWMC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend of $0.10 per share | The company pays a steady $0.10 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.10 per share | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical financial business with a turnaround-like execution case, not a proven durable compounder in the current evidence. The thesis is in watch state: recent performance is weak, earnings quality is loss-making, and management execution is volatile.
UWMC is rated cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is negative, so the valuation evidence does not show a clear cushion against weak results. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not indicate unusually concentrated expectations or market stress.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and declining originations, from $44.9 billion in 2026-Q1 to preliminary volume of $33.4 billion in 2026-Q3, point to continued pressure unless execution improves. Management’s servicing transition remains a stated commitment, while its debt-paydown plan relies on expected MSR-sale proceeds and rights-offering funds; the supplied evidence does not yet show that debt reduction has been delivered.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether UWMC can restore broker-channel volume, make progress on in-house servicing, and turn planned financing proceeds into lower non-funding debt. Near term, another guidance cut would add pressure; sector earnings strength could help the business backdrop, while rate cuts are identified as a risk in the supplied scenarios.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UWMC remains an execution-dependent thesis with weak recent results and several important plans still awaiting proof. The evidence supports caution about the business setup, not a price call. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose from $169.6M to $177.5M in early 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating income drops below $169.6 million in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $49M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $177.5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202649,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $4 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in UWM Holdings Corp's published investment case. The stated target is ~$4 billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $3.5 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $888.003M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026888,003,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.47 → $0.22 · observed estimates
$3.02B → $3.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.47 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.47 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.47 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.45 | $3,244,567,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.47 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.47 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.47 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.47 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.46 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.46 | $3,016,696,140 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.43 | $3,020,247,370 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.43 | $3,020,247,370 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.44 | $3,244,567,750 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.35 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.34 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.32 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.32 | $3,091,737,880 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.31 | $2,806,662,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.31 | $2,806,662,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.31 | $2,806,662,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.31 | $2,806,662,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.31 | $2,806,662,253 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.27 | $2,759,419,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.27 | $2,929,559,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.26 | $2,929,559,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.26 | $2,929,559,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.26 | $2,929,559,305 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.26 | $3,130,468,632 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.23 | $3,259,157,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.23 | $3,259,157,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.23 | $3,259,157,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.23 | $3,259,157,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.23 | $3,259,157,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.23 | $3,259,157,120 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.22 | $3,188,912,149 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.22 | $3,188,912,149 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.