UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.47+0.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UWMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UWMC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost management. It also shows operational strength.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is up year over year from $177.5 million in Q1.
Worry ifIf operating income goes down or stays the same, it shows operational issues.
Why it matters: This acquisition is important for UWMC's growth and market position.
Supportive ifThere is a clear agreement or approval for the purchase.
Worry ifThere are delays or the acquisition talks may end.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for UWM and its peers.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above median. This shows continued strength.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend policy could show shifts in how money is used.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new dividend or resumption of the previous $0.10 per share.
Also watch forThe dividend stays suspended with no plans to bring it back.
Why it matters: Doing servicing in-house could help keep borrowers and lower costs. This can add value.
Supportive ifUWM says it moved to in-house servicing faster than planned.
Worry ifUWM pushes back the finish of in-house servicing to after October 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend shows UWMC cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifThe dividend was paid on time. This shows financial stability.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or canceled.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show that management feels good about cash flow.
Watch forUWM maintains its dividend of $0.10 per share for the next quarter.
Also watch forUWM cuts its dividend below $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: The outcome will show if stockholders prefer UWMC's higher offer over the CCM merger. This could impact UWMC's growth strategy.
Supportive ifA majority of Two Harbors stockholders vote against the CCM merger on May 19, 2026.
Worry ifA majority of Two Harbors stockholders approve the CCM merger.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into UWM's performance amid a mixed market. Key metrics will be closely watched.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and profit growth that is better than expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report reveals revenue and profit growth that is lower than expected.
Why it matters: If loan origination volume goes down, it shows problems in the mortgage market.
Worry ifQ3 loan origination volume was less than $39 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 loan origination volume was more than $39 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$249 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $631 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,152 loss on $10,000 · 81.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.