UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.63-3.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UWMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UWMC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-05
Other Events. On October 5, 2026, UWM Holdings Corporation (the “Company”) commenced its previously announced rights offering to raise proceeds of up to $400 million (the “Rights Offering”). Pursuant to the Rights Offering, each holder of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Class A Common Stock”) as of October 2, 2026 (the “Record Date”) will receive one (1) subscription right (each, a “Right” and, collectively, the “Rights”) for each share of Class A Common…
Why it matters: UWM linked the switch to better borrower retention and lower costs. Completion would mark progress on that plan.
Supportive ifUWM says it services nearly all loans in-house. This matches its October 2026 target.
Worry ifUWM says the transition is incomplete or pushes the October 2026 target to a later date.
Why it matters: Debt fell only if the planned cash goes toward paydown. A lower debt ratio would show progress on this stated goal.
Watch forThe next filing shows net non-funding debt to preferred and common equity below 1.75x. Q3's preliminary range was 1.75x to 1.80x.
Also watch forThe next filing shows the ratio at 1.80x or higher, or says the rights offering did not close.
Why it matters: Management tied the sale proceeds to debt paydown. The amount sold and cash raised will test that plan.
Watch forUWM reports Q4 MSR sales of $70 billion to $80 billion and proceeds above $1.8 billion.
Also watch forUWM reports Q4 MSR sales below $70 billion or proceeds of $1.8 billion or less.
Why it matters: The October 23 figures are estimates and could change. Final results will show whether the quarter matched them.
Watch forThe Q3 filing reports revenue of $800 million to $825 million, net income of $205 million to $220 million, and loan volume near $33.4 billion.
Also watch forThe Q3 filing reports revenue below $800 million, a net loss, or loan volume below $33.4 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$272 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $643 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,299 loss on $10,000 · 83.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The calendar lists the next earnings date as November 5. This is the next set date to hear about Q3 results and the Q4 plans.
Watch forUWM reports final Q3 results and gives clear updates on Q4 MSR sales and debt paydown on or near November 5.
Also watch forUWM delays the report or gives no update on Q4 MSR sales and debt paydown.